Introduction
The recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska marked the first encounter between leaders of the world’s two major nuclear powers since 2021. For Trump to genuinely establish the United States as number one and leave a legacy of peacemaking, nuclear arms control should be a top priority.
Trump’s Efforts and Concerns
A month into his second presidency, Trump attempted to persuade Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to reduce nuclear spending, stating, “There’s no reason to keep manufacturing more nuclear weapons. We already have enough!” However, in July, he approved a significant increase in funding for nuclear forces within the US Department of Defense. Shortly after, in response to Russia’s nuclear bravado, he announced the deployment of US nuclear submarines to “appropriate regions.”
Trump’s fears of a new arms race are valid. As he acknowledged, producing more warheads does not secure America’s future. Conflicts can always resurface, and arsenals can be rebuilt. However, peace cannot be achieved through bombs. We must chart a course that does not leave humanity’s survival hanging by a thread, and those who succeed will secure their place in history.
Pragmatic Steps for Trump
In July, numerous Nobel laureates and nuclear experts gathered in Chicago to identify measures that would reduce the risk of nuclear conflict while preserving national security. The resulting declaration, endorsed by 129 Nobel laureates, calls for immediate actions to strengthen safeguards, prevent calculation errors, and halt the start of a new arms race. Presented to the Pope on the anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, along with a symbolic gift of pencils made from graphite bricks used in the first controlled nuclear chain reaction, practical steps can be taken immediately to build Trump’s peacemaking legacy.
One recommendation is the “two-person rule,” which would require another US government official’s presence during critical decision-making processes. This safeguard would be nearly impossible for successors to reverse, and if Trump initiated this, China and Russia might follow suit due to shared interests in preventing hasty missile launches.
Restarting Arms Control Talks
Another recommendation is to resume formal arms control negotiations with Russia and China. With increasing nuclear proliferation and expiring treaties, a dangerous combination is forming: more actors and fewer rules. Trump has expressed his desire to restart these talks and utilize the US nuclear arsenal’s substantial budget (approximately $1 trillion over the next decade) more effectively. However, to succeed, he must lead by example and bring Xi and Putin to the negotiation table—quickly, as New START (the current treaty governing US and Russian nuclear arsenals) expires in February 2026.
Strengthening Human Oversight
Reinforcing human oversight of nuclear systems is crucial, given AI’s error-prone nature. Entrusting critical nuclear decisions to technology would be imprudent. The US has already championed human control, and China affirmed the same principle last year. Trump can leverage his relationship with Putin to encourage Russia to adopt a similar stance. All nuclear-armed states must ensure that critical decisions, especially those involving weapon use, involve significant human participation.
Abandoning Missile Defense Fantasies
Lastly, all nuclear powers must abandon the fantasy of a missile shield. Despite the appeal of a system offering total protection against incoming nuclear missiles, such projects have repeatedly proven technically unfeasible.
Moreover, the pursuit of this protection increases the risk of nuclear war, as adversaries will respond by expanding their arsenals to surpass new defenses. Simultaneously, they will reduce decision-making time to counter the risk of a US first strike. Ultimately, the US will spend exorbitantly on an ineffective system that ultimately increases the likelihood of catastrophe.
Conclusion
The United States, as the first to unleash atomic power, bears a solemn responsibility that it has consistently upheld. Today, the US is Earth’s most powerful military force and the backbone of the global economy. Leading in scientific and technological innovation, with more Nobel laureates than the sum of the next five countries, the US must lead in preventing nuclear war—for its citizens’ sake and the world’s. As a new Cold War looms, we must heed the lessons of the last one. Diplomacy, not war, will secure our future.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the pragmatic steps Trump can take to secure his peacemaking legacy?
Trump can implement the “two-person rule” for nuclear decision-making, restart formal arms control talks with Russia and China, strengthen human oversight of nuclear systems, and abandon the pursuit of technically unfeasible missile defense systems.
- Why is restarting arms control negotiations with Russia and China important?
With increasing nuclear proliferation and expiring treaties, resuming these talks is crucial to establish new rules and prevent a dangerous combination of more actors and fewer regulations.
- How can human oversight of nuclear systems be reinforced?
By implementing the “two-person rule” and ensuring significant human participation in critical nuclear decisions, the risk of unintended consequences from AI errors can be minimized.
- Why should the US abandon missile defense fantasies?
Pursuing technically unfeasible missile defense systems increases the risk of nuclear war by prompting adversaries to expand their arsenals and reduce decision-making time, ultimately making the US less secure.
