Introduction to INEGI’s Indicator Global of Economic Activity (IGAE)
On December 22, the Mexican statistical agency, INEGI, released the Indicator Global of Economic Activity (IGAE) for October. The IGAE offers a preliminary insight into the monthly economic performance, contrasting with the quarterly reporting of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
October’s IGAE Growth: A Surprising Uptick
The deseasonalized IGAE for October indicates a 1.0% growth compared to September, and an annual growth of 1.6% when compared to October 2024. This positive development suggests that the Mexican economy has regained momentum not seen in over a year, as the IGAE hadn’t shown such favorable performance since July 2024.
Component Analysis of the IGAE
The IGAE comprises three main components: primary activities (agricultural, livestock, forestry, and fishing), secondary activities (mining, electricity generation, construction, and manufacturing), and tertiary activities (services).
- Primary Activities: These activities grew by 11.8% annually compared to October 2024.
- Tertiary Activities: These activities experienced a 2.5% annual growth.
- Secondary Activities: These activities saw a 0.7% decline from the previous year.
The primary activities contribute around 3.5% to Mexico’s GDP, secondary activities account for approximately 33%, and tertiary activities make up roughly 63%. Despite their smaller contribution to the overall economy, the double-digit growth in primary activities signals a prosperous period for Mexican agriculture.
Contradictory Data: Production and Prices
However, the reported growth in primary activities seems to contradict actual production and price trends. For instance, corn production for 2025 is expected to match or slightly exceed 2024 levels, while domestic prices per ton have not increased significantly. This discrepancy led to recent roadblocks by thousands of producers.
Similarly, tomato production for 2025 is projected to be lower than in 2024, according to preliminary reports. The bovine segment of the livestock sector faces a significant crisis due to the barberous worm problem.
Questioning INEGI’s Data
Key Questions and Answers:
- Q: How can INEGI report such impressive growth in primary activities if production and prices suggest otherwise?
A: The author, an economist, raises concerns about the reliability of INEGI’s data. It is crucial for INEGI to demonstrate the solidity of its statistics, avoiding the temptation to publish reports that may please the current administration.
