Following the recent attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which Israel and U.S. military and intelligence agencies claim are of a belligerent nature, Washington hopes Iran will recognize its inability to confront Israel and the U.S. together. The expectation of an unconditional surrender, in this logical scenario, seems plausible given a normal world and a rational government. However, the reality is that such a scenario does not exist because Iran has shown itself to be anything but rational.
Iran’s History of Retaliation
Looking at recent history, it is most likely that Iran will seek revenge and retaliate. The strategy, when examined, suggests that an Iranian response could take various forms, including terrorism. For decades, U.S. governments have warned of terrorist cells operating within the U.S. and Europe, and today, these actions are the primary concern for all levels of government in Western countries.
Iran’s Declared Intention and a History of Retaliation
Iran has openly declared its intent to punish what it calls the “Zionist enemy,” referring to Israel, following U.S. participation in the attacks. Iranian officials also accuse the U.S. of violating international law and destroying diplomatic avenues.
Precedents That Make These Threats Serious
Iran has a history of calculated retaliation. A significant precedent was in 2020 when Iran launched ballistic missiles against the Ain al-Asad airbase in Iraq after the U.S. assassinated General Qassem Soleimani. While it was a forceful response, it was also calculated to avoid large-scale war, with warnings issued to minimize U.S. casualties.
Possible Future Iranian Retaliation Paths, Already Underway Since June 22
Iran possesses a diverse and advanced arsenal of missiles and drones. Despite the U.S. and Israeli attacks targeting some of these capabilities, Iran could still launch calibrated attacks against U.S. military personnel, facilities, or allied interests in the region.
Terrorist attacks could come from Iran or its various intermediaries. Regional agents, which Iran has used in the past, have become less relevant as Israel has weakened and eliminated them as attack forces over the past two years. Groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza once served as attack forces, but now, groups like Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria and Houthi rebels in Yemen remain. These groups could target U.S. forces, interests, or allies in the Middle East. The Houthis have already threatened to attack U.S. warships in the Red Sea.
U.S. military bases across the Middle East could also be targets. Many of these bases are within range of Iranian missiles, and not all have the robust anti-aircraft defenses that would neutralize such attacks.
U.S. Military Presence in the Middle East: Potential Targets
The U.S. has military deployments throughout the Middle East, including the Fifth Fleet’s headquarters in Bahrain, which oversees the largest U.S. naval base in the region. Qatar hosts a significant U.S. Air Force base, followed by military bases in Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Syria.
Iran might irrationally target multiple naval military deployments in the area or opt for a hybrid retaliation, striking diplomatic installations. This threat has been ongoing since Israel bombed an Iranian consulate in Syria last April in Damascus.
Terrorism as Another Form of Retaliation
Experts warn that Iran could resort to transnational terrorism. Hezbollah-linked operatives and dormant Iranian cells could pose a threat to Israeli, European, or U.S. interests worldwide. Iran has demonstrated both the intent and capability to carry out extraterritorial attacks, including foiled plots to assassinate officials or even journalists influencing millions.
The Most Feared Retaliation: Disrupting Global Oil Navigation
The most dreaded scenario is an attack on the world’s most critical oil navigation route. Attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz by attacking navigation in the Persian Gulf would disrupt more than 30% of the world’s oil, as this 30-kilometer-wide strait separates navigation between Iran and the Arab state of Oman.
Such an attack would severely impact global hydrocarbon markets, as reopening the strategic passage as a maritime route would take months, leaving the world with soaring gasoline, oil, and energy prices.
Nuclear Material for Dirty Bombs, Nuclear Contamination Threat
Some speculate that, in the worst-case scenario, a dying regime might distribute materials for dirty bombs out of spite. However, this possibility is highly speculative and catastrophic.
Cyber Operations: A Likely Iranian Response
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) anticipates Iranian cyber forces targeting U.S. internet networks. Iran has a history of attacking critical infrastructure via cyberattacks and has shown growing sophistication.
These attacks could aim to disrupt U.S. critical infrastructure and networks, such as municipal water systems in thousands of cities, power distribution networks, or even the internet itself. The consequences of disrupting the global network that not only communicates but also manages various services, from banking to entertainment, healthcare in hospitals, and global air and sea traffic, would be severe.
Iran’s Strategic Goal: Avoiding Large-Scale War
Although Iran threatens, it generally seeks to reaffirm its deterrence without triggering a large-scale war with the U.S., recognizing the significant disparity in conventional military power.
Iran’s leadership is not monolithic, and intense internal debates are likely in the coming weeks regarding an appropriate response.
For now, assessing the damage from the recent U.S. bombings of Iran’s nuclear facilities is crucial. The extent of the damage will likely influence the nature and scale of Iran’s retaliation.
Iranian Pursuit of Diplomatic Avenues
Past experiences suggest offering Iran a diplomatic outlet to save face could result in less aggressive responses. However, given the gravity of recent U.S. attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iran’s historical patterns of retaliation, it is reasonable to anticipate some form of aggressive action from Iran.
The U.S. remains on high alert, warning Iran against retaliation and emphasizing that any such action would only provoke even more severe military responses.
Despite this, it’s important to note that both the U.S. public opinion and Congress are not fully behind President Trump. His adversaries criticize him for dragging the country into another potential endless war in the Middle East, while his MAGA base reprimands him for misleading them about ending U.S. global policing during his presidency.
