Introduction
As Mexico prepares for its upcoming judicial elections, decision-makers have commissioned surveys to predict voter behavior. However, the interpretation of these results is not definitive. While three-quarters of voters believe that the reform mandating the renewal of judges, magistrates, and ministers will bring change, only 28% of registered citizens have expressed their intention to vote within the next 15 days.
Voter Participation: A Detailed Analysis
According to restricted-circulation demographic studies among business leaders and opposition lawmakers, approximately 23% of voters are likely to participate. This raises questions about the validity of a process with potentially 25 million votes, given its limited socialization.
Political strategists and publicists advising candidates estimate that Morena’s structures, whether through “acordeones” or imposed quotas for legislators and mayors, can mobilize 20 million voters. They emphasize a corporate logic driven by groups of candidates, with involvement from other parties, unions, and civil organizations. Governors are committed to ensuring a well-attended election free of illegitimacy.
The Opposition’s Dilemma
The opposition has extensively debated the utility of voting in the upcoming June 1 elections, acknowledging that, under current conditions, resorting to popular vote for judge, magistrate, and minister appointments is a historic mistake jeopardizing justice, legality, and democratic stability in Mexico.
The Undecided Voter Segment
Between abstention and a “protest vote,” there is a significant majority—non-partisan, middle to upper-middle class voters—potentially constituting 5% of the electorate. These voters are expected to participate due to familiarity with a candidate or conviction that justice should be dispensed by experts selected for their expertise. Young voters, curious about the process, have also declared their intention to vote, though it’s unlikely they will follow through.
These five million votes, according to estimates, would be wasted, only serving to legitimize a flawed election from the start. Another segment of civil society and partisan organizations advocates for citizen observation as a crucial tool to expose electoral irregularities and demonstrate that the judicial election mechanism, due to its severe shortcomings, should never have been implemented.
Secondary Effects: Suspicions and Affinities
Suspicions
The Financial Entity for Well-being has shown no urgency in awarding the contract for providing ICT services at its most significant financial institution under the 4T regime. Following complaints from some LA-06-KCZ-002-N-8-2025 bidders, the initial call was declared void. However, the consortium comprising Concepto Libre Mexicano, ND Negocios Digitales, and VCP Tecnología remains the sole capable of fulfilling the requested type F equipment and perpetual licensing software, thanks to its Dell-based proposal.
Affinities
María Tanivet Ramos Reyes resigned from Oaxaca’s transparency guaranteeing body just two years into her term as commissioner. With Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential victory, her expertise was sought for the Inai replacement within her transition team. Tanivet and her mother, former PRD deputy Norma Reyes, held significant positions during Alejandro Murat’s administration, leading to their marginalization under Salomón Jara’s tenure—particularly Tanivet, who lacked support when she exposed the OGAIPO president’s abuses.
The new Transparency for the People head already has a work team, led by newly appointed Inai General Director for International Affairs and Information, Francisco Raúl Álvarez Córdoba. He must address previous criticisms from his Inai days that nearly prevented his Comité de Participación Ciudadana SNA membership.
