Introduction
In 2026, three key economic matters will face a “make or break” moment: Mexico’s Plan, Pemex, and the T-MEC. The outcomes in 2026 for these initiatives will have systemic repercussions and significantly shape the upcoming six-year term.
Mexico’s Plan: A Make or Break Opportunity
Introduced in 2025, Mexico’s Plan took its initial steps in the recently concluded year. However, it must gain momentum rapidly in the coming months to demonstrate its feasibility in real-world scenarios. The central question is whether it can stimulate private investment and establish a viable public-private investment model.
- The plan aims to achieve investments exceeding 25% of the GDP, reaching 30% by 2030. This requires sustained annual investments over $350,000 million from both public and private sources, domestic and foreign.
- To reach this target, double-digit growth in private investment is necessary. There’s significant work to be done in rebuilding business confidence, addressing external uncertainty and domestic legal/regulatory insecurity.
Revitalizing Pemex: A Make or Break Challenge
The government has presented a plan to reverse Pemex’s crisis, with the Energy Secretariat leading the effort. By 2027, Pemex must stop receiving federal government support, which amounted to around 2.4 billion pesos annually between 2019 and 2024, including capital contributions and significant reductions in rights payments.
- Can Pemex achieve self-sufficiency by 2026? Current efforts fall short. The company must significantly improve performance across all areas, including boosting productivity in a bloated organization managed by political criteria.
- Oil production needs to increase from 1.6 million barrels per day to the target of 1.8 million barrels, while refining output in 2025 reached its highest level since 2016 but remained 5% below the target. The challenge is to increase refined volume while reducing losses per barrel processed.
- The Finance Secretariat manages Pemex’s debt restructuring, totaling over $10 billion and with near-$26 billion in maturities between 2026 and 2027. Although the amount is substantial, federal government support has reportedly been well-received by creditors.
T-MEC Renegotiation: A Make or Break Negotiation
T-MEC renegotiation began late 2025 with public consultations in all three countries. In July, representatives from the three nations will meet to decide T-MEC’s future. Given 2025 events, this negotiation won’t be easy or superficial.
- The free trade agreement is transitioning to a managed commerce model according to U.S. dictates, indicating a complex negotiation process.
- Despite protectionism and peso strengthening, Mexican exports to the U.S. continued growing in 2025. However, issues remain for the automotive and steel sectors, with real competitiveness risks against the U.S. and evidence of U.S. arbitrariness in steel tariffs.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What is Mexico’s Plan? A: It aims to stimulate private investment and establish a public-private investment model, targeting investments exceeding 25% of the GDP and reaching 30% by 2030.
- Q: How is Pemex’s situation? A: The company must significantly improve performance across all areas to achieve self-sufficiency by 2026, including boosting productivity and increasing oil production and refining output.
- Q: What are the T-MEC renegotiation challenges? A: The negotiation process is complex due to the transition towards a managed commerce model according to U.S. dictates, with issues remaining for the automotive and steel sectors.
