Introduction
On February 4, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum redefined the country’s energy policy, emphasizing the pursuit of energy sovereignty as a fundamental goal.
Background on Mexico’s Energy Policy
The official stance reinforces Sheinbaum’s ideological profile, positioning energy independence as the primary objective of the government. Pemex remains the central symbol of Mexico’s independence, despite the fact that the López Obrador administration effectively halted the opening of the petroleum industry.
In contrast, the current administration is consolidating and opting for a vertical integration of Pemex along with gradual debt reduction supported by substantial government capital injections.
The True Dependence: Natural Gas
Despite the ideological rhetoric, there are clear signals of pragmatism as Mexico moves towards greater openness to the private sector and reorienting efforts to tackle its significant dependence on imported natural gas from the United States.
Sheinbaum highlighted Mexico’s marked dependence on natural gas imports from the U.S., stating that 75% of Mexico’s consumed gas comes from the U.S. Approximately 7 billion cubic feet of gas are imported daily from the U.S., nearly meeting all national needs, considering Pemex’s production.
Sheinbaum emphasized the need for Mexico to reduce its dependence on this energy source and ensure that domestic production covers a much larger percentage of consumption.
Fracking on the Horizon?
In essence, Sheinbaum refocused the core of Mexico’s energy dependence on natural gas rather than oil, as experts have long pointed out. The country’s reliance on U.S.-imported gas affects both national power plants and the operations of many private companies.
This shift by Sheinbaum marks a complete turnaround from her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who explicitly rejected hydraulic fracturing (fracking) as an oil extraction technique.
Although Sheinbaum did not mention fracking in her recent speech, it has been reported that increasing domestic gas production through strategic Pemex projects—including the exploration and exploitation of complex geology or unconventional resources associated with fracking—are among the alternatives being considered.
The Rescue and Strengthening Plan for Pemex includes gas production targets of around 4.5 billion cubic feet per day in the short term, with progressive increases.
Pemex’s Financial Independence
Sheinbaum reiterated her conviction regarding the cancellation of Pemex privatization initiated during neoliberal governments and its transformation into a public company of the people.
She also boasted about Pemex’s financial independence progress, though acknowledged that the company will stop receiving government support by 2027.
Sheinbaum clarified that Pemex pays its debt, with the Mexican state not directly assuming debt payment responsibility.
Finance Ministry assisted in renegotiating Pemex’s financial deadlines.
Sheinbaum claimed that the results of the Pemex Strengthening Plan (2025-2035) have exceeded expectations, including Pemex’s financial strengthening, debt reduction by 20%, stabilized production, improved refining, and recovery of strategic sectors like petrochemicals and fertilizers.
Credit rating agencies Moody’s, Fitch, and Standard & Poor’s have upgraded Pemex’s credit rating.
It remains to be seen if the Pemex restructuring will achieve production and refining objectives.
Shifting Energy Policy
The news is that Mexico has partnered with the U.S. and signed an agreement on critical minerals, including rare earths.
Just days before, U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer proposed this initiative, and on February 4, Sheinbaum announced that the governments of both countries had promulgated a Plan of Action on Critical Minerals.
It remains to be seen if this plan will contribute to a successful T-MEC revision.
