Introduction
Mexico is currently facing a prolonged economic recession, which is expected to continue at least through this year. Despite the government’s expenditure of 9 million pesos in the 2024 election year, the economy has not grown as expected. The previous administration’s six-year term averaged less than half the annual growth of the past 30 years, with indicators continuing to decline since late 2024. The current administration, led by President Claudia Sheinbaum, inherits a falling economy and a government with a considerable debt burden exceeding 60% of the GDP.
The Dilemma: Financing Social Programs and Infrastructure
This situation presents a dilemma: how to fund growing social programs and infrastructure projects, such as various trains, without negatively impacting sensitive sectors like security, education, and health. As the judicial reform progresses, economic pressures will intensify, creating more uncertainty than the trade adjustments imposed by Donald Trump. The trade adjustments driven by the US and China have not been the cause of Mexico’s systematic economic decline since 2024. Instead, the lack of legal certainty, a single Union power’s ability to constitutionally reform in days or hours, and fiscal deficit have led to the recession.
Controversial Judicial Reform and Candidate Concerns
With finalist candidates ready for voting, the judicial reform raises concerns due to questionable candidates who lack requirements, have ties to crime, or openly support specific political parties. This situation reflects potential issues with investments, especially for growth and social well-being, which may not flow as expected. Key sectors have expressed reservations about the judge selection process:
- Financial Sector: Morgan Stanley, Citibanamex, Bank of America, Fitch Ratings, and UBS have voiced their concerns.
- Academic Sector: Law faculties from UNAM, CIDE, UP, ITAM, TEC, and other universities have expressed reservations.
- International Organizations: Canadian and US embassies, the UN, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, the International Association of Judges (Rome), the Global Enterprises Council, and various national chambers of commerce have shared similar concerns.
Although the trade dispute with Trump will eventually be resolved, internal issues create the real uncertainty affecting Mexico’s economy.
