Introduction
In my previous contribution, I discussed how Mexico has renounced being a power while falling in love with populism. Today, the data confirms that this renunciation is no longer symbolic but economic.
Economic Contraction: A Detailed Analysis
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) recently quantified what many have felt in their wallets. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2025 fell by 0.3%, both compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year. In other words, not only are we not growing; the economy is marginally smaller.
This contraction, if taken alone, would be concerning. However, it becomes more alarming when broken down. Primary activities, or agriculture, grew by 3.2% and are the only sector showing signs of life despite farmers’ discontent and abuses from both the government and organized crime. Ironically, they have kept the Mexican economy afloat in recent months. Meanwhile, industry contracted by 1.5%, its worst performance since 2023, and services barely advanced by 0.1%.
Agriculture vs. Industry and Services
An economy relying heavily on agriculture while manufacturing and commerce stall is not transforming but rather regressing. During the first nine months of the year, Mexico’s economy barely grew by half a percentage point. This growth is insufficient for an economy the size of Mexico, which aspires to be among the world’s ten largest.
Plummeting Business Confidence
Business confidence has also taken a hit. The Global Indicator of Business Confidence fell to 48.6 points, its lowest in eight months, with all sectors falling below the optimism threshold.
- Construction: Confidence stands at 45.8 points, nearly in the basement.
- Manufacturing: Confidence is at 49.1 points.
- Commerce: Confidence is at 47.9 points.
- Services: Confidence is at 49.2 points.
The component measuring whether it’s “a good time to invest” has sunk to historic lows: 36.9 points in manufacturing and 19.8 points in construction.
The Paradox: Rhetoric vs. Reality
The Mexican paradox lies in the fact that growth rhetoric does not match productive reality. While grandiose projects and promises of well-being are celebrated, the economic machinery rusts.
- Lack of Incentives: There are no incentives for investment.
- Changing Rules: Regulations change weekly.
- Subsidies over Productivity: Productive projects are replaced by subsidies.
- Public Spending Priorities: Public spending is more about applause than efficiency.
The consequence is clear: Mexico is running out of steam. Industry stalls, services stagnate, and agriculture alone cannot support the entire economy. It’s like expecting a cyclist to win a motorcycle race with a punctured tire and no handlebars.
The Illusion of Progress
Despite the dire situation, there’s insistence that everything is fine. Talks of stability, recovery, confidence, and the famous Plan Mexico abound, which sounds promising on paper but remains elusive in reality.
Meanwhile, the world adjusts strategies to attract investment, improve competitiveness, elevate productivity, and strengthen institutions. Mexico, however, remains trapped in the illusion of rhetoric.
Conclusion
The data from this quarter clearly shows Mexico attempting to advance with its feet tied, looking in the rearview mirror and applauding inactivity. The dream of power has become a routine of complacency, the famous “ya por algo…” of the Mexican ideology.
In this context, Mexico’s economy continues to stagnate, and a non-growing country eventually begins to deteriorate from within.
About the Author
*The author is an academic at the School of Government and Economics and the School of Communication at the Universidad Panamericana.
