Introduction
Mexico faces a paradoxical situation where, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), it is classified as experiencing extreme conflict in 2025, ranking fourth globally. However, the country’s tourism sector thrives with record-breaking hotel occupancies and historical visitor numbers. This article explores the reasons behind this peculiar situation, its implications, and potential future challenges.
Understanding the Paradox
ACLED measures political violence, attacks, homicides, and assaults against civilians in over 100 countries. While Mexico’s homicide rates and other high-impact crimes have reportedly decreased, extortion continues to rise. This discrepancy explains the apparent contradiction: ACLED assesses not only homicides but also civilian violence, territorial expansion, and the presence of armed groups. Although there may be fewer killings, Mexico remains dangerous in many regions.
Government Data vs. ACLED
Official government data claims a decrease in homicides and high-impact crimes so far this year, except for extortion, which continues to grow. This difference accounts for the seemingly contradictory situation: ACLED evaluates various factors, including civilian violence, territorial expansion, and armed group presence.
Thriving Tourism Sector
Despite the high levels of violence, Mexico’s tourism sector is booming. Between January and September 2025, the country welcomed 71 million international visitors (+13.9%). Among these, 34.7 million were international tourists (+6.4%) who stayed at least one night. Additionally, 25.778 billion US dollars in foreign currency were generated during this period.
Reasons for Tourism Success
Mexico’s proximity, affordability, and all-inclusive travel packages offering controlled experiences make it an attractive destination for American tourists seeking value for their money. Tourists don’t buy “Mexico” but rather a secure corridor and itineraries that minimize interaction with the real country.
Sustainability and Social Costs
The tourism bubble maintains itself through mutual convenience. Criminal organizations avoid disrupting the tourism business, while tourists pay to avoid confronting reality. Simultaneously, gentrification and short-term rentals are transforming neighborhoods in Mexico City and the Riviera Maya, displacing residents and raising living costs.
Tourism’s Social Impact
As tourism succeeds, visible social costs emerge. The gentrification and short-term rentals are altering entire neighborhoods in Mexico City and the Riviera Maya, displacing residents and increasing living expenses. Moreover, tourists are learning to interpret US travel advisories, applying them only to road trips and early morning excursions rather than organized transfers and hotel wristbands.
Future Challenges
The United Nations’ Tourism organization warns of a global slowdown in 2026. Mexico cannot rely solely on visitor numbers; it must leverage tourism revenue to curb extortion, regulate urban development, and ensure local law enforcement effectiveness along tourism corridors.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the paradox in Mexico’s tourism sector? Despite high levels of violence, Mexico’s tourism thrives due to its proximity, affordability, and controlled travel packages.
- How does ACLED differ from government data? ACLED measures political violence, civilian assaults, territorial expansion, and armed group presence, while government data focuses on homicide rates.
- What are the reasons behind Mexico’s successful tourism sector? Mexico offers affordable, close-to-home travel options with all-inclusive packages that minimize interaction with the real country.
- What are the social costs of Mexico’s booming tourism? Gentrification, short-term rentals, and rising living costs are displacing residents in popular tourist destinations.
- What challenges does Mexico’s tourism sector face in the future? The industry must adapt to potential global slowdowns and effectively utilize tourism revenue for local development and security.
