Introduction
The first part established that economic growth is necessary but not sufficient for development. This second installment uses current market observations, private analyst assessments, and structural indicators to explain why Mexico arrives at the end of 2025 with a fragile outlook and clear risks for 2026.
Private Analysts’ Consensus
The Citi Expectations Survey provides an unignorable signal: private analysts anticipate persistently low growth, with downward revisions for both 2025 and 2026. Specifically, gross fixed capital formation will remain one of the weakest components of aggregate demand.
UBS’s analysis reinforces this view. The Swiss bank highlights that the main burden isn’t external factors but internal ones: weak institutions, unpredictable regulatory changes, and a policy that prioritizes short-term gains over building productive capabilities. UBS notes that, despite relative macroeconomic stability, the country fails to translate it into greater investment because trust is eroding. For 2026, this will be a significant challenge: without investment, any narrative of well-being is reduced to mere rhetoric.
The Myth of Inevitable Low Growth
This point is crucial because it debunks another recurring myth: that low growth is an inevitable consequence of the global context. Private analysts agree that Mexico could grow more if it offered minimal legal certainty, security, and clear investment rules. It doesn’t. When a country fails to invest, the result soon appears in the labor market.
The Informal Economy
According to INEGI’s measurement, a significant portion of the employed population remains in informality, with low productivity, no access to social security, and unstable income. This phenomenon isn’t cultural or anecdotal; it’s structural. Informality grows when the formal economy fails to generate enough well-paid, productive jobs, which happens when investment is insufficient and growth is weak.
By 2026, the relevance lies in that informality not only limits the well-being of those who suffer it but also reduces the country’s potential growth. An economy with high informality collects less, invests less, and produces less. However, the official discourse seems comfortable with this reality, as long as it can be compensated for with transfers.
Economic Policy: Consumption Administration over Development Strategy
Both the Citi survey and UBS analysis highlight another concerning point: Mexico’s economic policy has replaced a development strategy with a consumption administration logic. Short-term demand sustenance is prioritized, even if it means sacrificing productive public investment and creating future fiscal pressures.
This approach may work politically, but it’s unsustainable economically, especially when looking towards 2026, a year with narrower fiscal margins and contained growth expectations.
The Illusion of Temporary Relief as Structural Progress
Here lies the true risk of what’s called “Mexican humanism”: confusing temporary relief with structural progress. Economic development involves expanding capabilities, improving productivity, and creating quality jobs. None of this is achieved with permanent transfers in a non-growing economy. When growth is low, transfers stop being a bridge and become an anchor.
Conclusion
The data, informality indicators, and market expectations paint the same picture: Mexico arrives at 2026 with a vulnerable economy, low potential growth, and a model prioritizing distribution over production. If the course isn’t corrected, the country will remain trapped in a dynamic where well-being is measured by the amount of support received rather than the ability to generate income independently.
Key Questions and Answers
- What does the Citi Expectations Survey signal? Private analysts anticipate persistently low growth in Mexico, with downward revisions for both 2025 and 2026.
- What does UBS’s analysis of Mexico highlight? The main burden isn’t external factors but internal ones: weak institutions, unpredictable regulatory changes, and a policy prioritizing short-term gains over building productive capabilities.
- Why is low growth not inevitable in the global context? Private analysts agree that Mexico could grow more if it offered minimal legal certainty, security, and clear investment rules. It doesn’t.
- What is the significance of the informal economy in Mexico? The informal economy limits the well-being of those who suffer it and reduces Mexico’s potential growth. An economy with high informality collects less, invests less, and produces less.
- What are the implications of Mexico’s economic policy prioritizing consumption administration? This approach may work politically but is unsustainable economically, especially when looking towards 2026 with narrower fiscal margins and contained growth expectations.
