Economic Context and Mobile Market Performance
The Mexican mobile market is experiencing low dynamism in 2025, driven by minimal economic growth and regulatory uncertainty. In the first quarter of 2025 (1T-2025), mobile telecommunications recorded a mere 1.4% annual growth, generating revenues of $89,588 million pesos (mdp).
Although this figure surpasses the weak pace of the national economy (0.8%), it reflects a deceleration stemming from an uncertain and potentially regressive structural environment.
Consumer Perspective
From a consumer standpoint, average spending on mobile services, measured by the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), fell 1.5% to $140.5 pesos per month. This contraction signifies a market where operators face pressures to maintain margins amidst moderate macroeconomic conditions.
Regulatory Shift: A Pivotal Year
The impending demise of the Federal Institute of Telecommunications (IFT) and its replacement by the Digital Transformation and Telecommunications Agency (ATDT), along with the creation of the National Antimonopoly Commission (CNA), are set to drastically alter the regulatory ecosystem.
Operators are reassessing their investment plans due to regulatory uncertainty, while analysts, opposition lawmakers, and civil society organizations warn of risks related to power concentration, reduced transparency, and excessive centralization of functions such as discretionary platform blocking and advertising control or mass data retention without institutional counterbalances.
Imbalanced Market Structure
One of the main challenges for the new regulatory body will be addressing a concentration that has proven resistant to any corrective mechanisms.
Telcel continues to dominate the market with 66.2% of revenues, followed distantly by AT&T (22.3%), Telefónica (6.9%), and Mobile Virtual Network Operators (OMV) capturing a mere 4.6% of the remainder.
Financial Performance and Market Trends
Despite fluctuations in financial results, the market imbalance persists. Telcel reported $58,792 million pesos in revenues for 1T-2025, with a 3.3% annual decline.
While its service component grew marginally (0.8%), equipment sales plummeted 14.5%, indicating a declining trend in device sales.
In contrast, AT&T experienced a significant uptick, with 9.8% revenue growth driven by favorable service performance (7.1%) and equipment sales recovery (14.7%).
Telefónica had modest 1.5% growth, while OMV shone with a remarkable 40.9%, reflecting their ability to attract new customers.
Looking Ahead
The mobile sector’s performance at the start of 2025 demonstrates both its resilience to economic headwinds and its limitations.
The growth, though positive, is moderate and uneven. Moreover, it faces threats from a regulatory uncertainty context that could potentially undermine investment and competitiveness incentives.
Should the new institutional framework fail to ensure transparency, independence, and effective competition, there’s a risk of reverting to a pre-reform scenario with one player dictating the rules, reduced innovation, high prices, and most critically, captive and unprotected consumers.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current state of the Mexican mobile market? The market is experiencing low dynamism due to minimal economic growth and regulatory uncertainty.
- What are the concerns regarding the upcoming regulatory changes? Operators are reassessing investments due to uncertainty, and there are warnings about potential power concentration, reduced transparency, and excessive centralization of functions.
- How is the market structured? Telcel dominates with 66.2% of revenues, followed by AT&T (22.3%), Telefónica (6.9%), and OMV with 4.6%.
- What are the financial performance trends? Despite fluctuations, Telcel’s revenues declined 3.3% in 1T-2025, while AT&T and OMV showed growth. Telefónica had modest growth.
- What are the potential risks if regulatory transformation is not successful? There’s a risk of reverting to a pre-reform scenario with reduced innovation, high prices, and captive consumers.
