Introduction
The mobile telecommunications market in Mexico is showing promising signs after a period marked by economic slowdown and regulatory uncertainty. During the second quarter of 2025 (2T-2025), mobile segment revenues grew by 6.5% annually, accumulating $92,468 million Mexican pesos, a notably higher rate than the meager 1.2% national GDP growth.
Context and Relevance
This resurgence occurs in a transitional institutional and regulatory context, as Mexico prepares for the entry of new regulatory bodies and the implementation of a new regulatory framework.
Market Dynamics
The rebound is significant, being the second consecutive quarter with income growth after virtual stagnation at the end of 2024. The primary drivers have been sustained demand for mobile connectivity and a surge in equipment sales, boosted by aggressive technological upgrade strategies and migration to higher-value plans.
Market Concentration
Despite this recovery, the market remains dominated by a single major player. Telcel captured 66.3% of mobile income in 2T-2025, significantly higher than AT&T (22.4%) and Telefónica Movistar (6.7%). The remaining 4.6% belongs to Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs), which are experiencing exponential growth of 31.1% interannually.
This level of concentration poses a structural challenge for effective competition. New regulatory authorities will have the crucial task of correcting these imbalances, fostering an environment that encourages both network expansion investment and service innovation, particularly in less profitable areas.
Revenue per User Stability
During 2T-2025, the average revenue per user (ARPU) was $142.8 Mexican pesos, nearly unchanged from the previous year.
Telcel maintains the highest ARPU in the market ($183 Mexican pesos), driven by growth in its postpaid customer base. AT&T reported an ARPU of $146.7 Mexican pesos, also with positive growth, while Telefónica and MVNOs are at significantly lower levels ($74.4 Mexican pesos and $58 Mexican pesos, respectively), reflecting their focus on lower-income segments or niche offerings.
Although user income hasn’t seen a significant increase, the market growth is attributed to customer base expansion and reactivation of the technological replacement cycle.
Looking Ahead
The Mexican mobile market seems to have regained its lost momentum from 2024. However, its sustainability depends on several factors.
Firstly, the arrival of the new regulatory framework will be crucial: its design and implementation should stimulate network investment, effective competition, and user protection.
Secondly, the national economic environment still shows signs of fragility. Limited growth may restrict household consumption capacity and negatively impact ARPU evolution.
While the 2Q-2025 rebound is an encouraging sign, it should not be interpreted as a guarantee of sustained recovery. The challenge is not only to maintain growth but also ensure it’s continuous, equitable, and resilient against upcoming structural changes.
Key Questions and Answers
- What does the mobile market resurgence in Mexico signify? The mobile telecommunications market in Mexico is showing promising signs after a period marked by economic slowdown and regulatory uncertainty.
- Who are the major players in this market? Telcel dominates with 66.3% of mobile income, followed by AT&T (22.4%) and Telefónica Movistar (6.7%). Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs) make up the remaining 4.6% and are experiencing exponential growth.
- What challenges does this market concentration pose? The high level of concentration poses a structural challenge for effective competition. New regulatory authorities will need to correct these imbalances.
- What factors will determine the sustainability of this market resurgence? The arrival of a new regulatory framework and the national economic environment’s stability are crucial factors.
