Geopolitics as the Primary Driver of Global Economic Activity
Following the conclusion of the World Economic Forum in Davos 2026, it’s evident that geopolitics has become the primary determinant of global economic activity. The old paradigm of frictionless integration has been left behind.
Nearshoring as a Dominant Strategy
The shift of manufacturing to allied countries remains the dominant strategy. The United States has emphasized that nearshoring is not a fleeting trend but a cornerstone of economic and technological security for the next 20 years. Mexico appears as a priority partner, provided pending reforms are concretized, especially the energy reform, to remain in the global conversation.
Davos confirmed that regionalization is irreversible. Geopolitical tensions between leading countries have fragmented the global economy into blocks, and the T-MEC has positioned itself as one of the most valuable geopolitical certainty instruments. Access to preferential markets in North America is no longer just a commercial advantage; it’s a strategic asset that defines where advanced manufacturing will be produced in the next 20 years.
Nearshoring, therefore, is not a transient trend. It’s the structural response to a world that can no longer afford dispersed, vulnerable, or single-region dependent supply chains. Global companies are aware of this. The messages are clear: relocation is no longer being evaluated; it’s happening. The question is which country will capture the largest percentage of this investment.
Mexico’s Potential with Challenges
Mexico could be that country, but it won’t happen automatically. The interest in advanced manufacturing hinges on two critical variables: energy and talent. New-generation investments only land where reliable energy exists—with real capacity for transitioning to clean sources—and where ecosystems can form technicians and specialists quickly. In contrast, Vietnam, India, Poland, and Malaysia presented comprehensive training and labor reconversion strategies aligned with their industrial transition at Davos.
Additionally, Mexico faces the water challenge and the need for modern infrastructure: smart customs, secure transportation, efficient ports, and a stable regulatory framework. The Mexican industry—especially the industrial parks sector—is ready to respond. The demand exists, projects are defined, and capital is willing.
Nearshoring as a National Project
Nearshoring should be viewed as a national project requiring coordination among governments, businesses, and academia, transcending any political cycle. The T-MEC cannot be taken for granted; its value depends on Mexico’s ability to offer real competitiveness conditions.
Insights from the Industrial Development Index (IDI)
In this context, insights from the third edition of the Industrial Development Index (IDI) become relevant. Challenges and opportunities persist, intensifying in a more volatile and competitive global environment. Recent federal initiatives—including Plan Mexico—have paid more attention to states’ real capacity to absorb investment, generate formal jobs, and strengthen high-value-added production chains.
The IDI has become a crucial input to evaluate which entities align with these priorities, especially regarding relocation, national content, sustainability, and technical training. Results confirm that three regions continue as the country’s industrial pillars: the northern border, the Bajio, and the center. All face persistent challenges in security, urban mobility, water, and environmental sustainability.
This year, the IDI includes more precise indicators from specialized sources in water treatment, sustainable construction, and air quality. Factors that have gained increasing importance in global companies’ investment criteria seeking stricter environmental standards.
In a world demanding greater resilience, sustainability, and innovation, Mexico has the opportunity to consolidate itself as a central actor in North America’s productive integration. We must strengthen the country’s capacity to attract and sustain high-value-added investments in the new global economic landscape.
