Introduction
On the past Thursday, Mexico City’s President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held a joint press conference, emphasizing cooperation, integration, and optimism regarding the imminent T-MEC review. Both leaders stressed that North America’s competitiveness hinges on maintaining a united front, avoiding bilateral temptations, and strengthening integrated production chains that have made the region the most interconnected globally.
Contrasting Trump’s Approach
Their optimism stands in stark contrast to the reality imposed by Donald Trump since his return to power in January. Trump once called the TLCAN “the worst deal ever” and, despite creating the T-MEC, has returned to his old ways: generalized tariff threats—25% against Mexico and Canada, 50% on steel and semi-finished copper—along with warnings that the treaty must undergo “greater changes or even cancellation” if it fails to meet his demands on migration, drugs, or national security. Essentially, Trump uses the T-MEC as a negotiation tactic rather than a firm commitment.
Trump’s Divide-and-Conquer Strategy
While Carney and Sheinbaum advocate for trilateral cooperation, Trump favors the “America First” logic: divide to conquer. He previously dismissed the TLCAN as a nightmare and criticized the WTO’s shortcomings. Now, he seeks to pressure Mexico and Canada with unilateral measures—essentially, a renegotiation under duress: accept his conditions or face damaging tariffs on your industries.
What to Expect from the T-MEC Renegotiation
- Trump’s limitations: Trump cannot afford to completely sabotage the T-MEC due to deep automotive, agricultural, and manufacturing integration. Destroying it would harm millions of US jobs, explaining why the US government had to adjust tariffs to “minimize disruption” in the automotive sector.
- Unity between Mexico and Canada: The Sheinbaum-Carney conference sends a positive signal: reject separate negotiations and maintain a united front. This is crucial to resist Trump’s strategy of division and bilateral pressure.
- Predicted T-MEC modifications: The review is likely to conclude with a modified, but not broken, T-MEC. Expect changes in rules of origin, stricter labor and environmental requirements, and tougher security and migration clauses. Mexico and Canada will retain preferential access but at the cost of accepting harsher conditions, reflecting Trump’s economic nationalism.
Conclusion
In summary, Claudia Sheinbaum and Mark Carney present a vision of an integrated and optimistic region, while Trump responds with threats and unilateralism. The outcome will be a weakened but still existing T-MEC, less cooperative and more subject to the US president’s will.
