Background on the G7 Summit
The annual meeting of the Group of Seven (G7) began yesterday in Alberta, Canada. This prestigious gathering comprises the economic powerhouses of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan. These nations were among the world’s largest economies when the G7 was established half a century ago, both in terms of combined GDP and per capita income.
This Year’s Agenda
The agenda for this year’s summit, set by host and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, focuses on progressive topics such as “community protection,” climate change and forest fires, crime organization combat, global economic state, energy security, growth impetus, artificial intelligence, and technological change.
Off-Agenda Issues
Despite the official agenda, three significant issues are expected to dominate discussions:
1. The Russia-Ukrainian war and shifts in U.S. military support for Ukraine since Trump’s presidency, perceived as pro-Putin and thus betraying Ukraine.
2. Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities along with key Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard figures, given Israel, the U.S., and IAEA’s belief that Iran was nearing nuclear weapons capability.
3. Trump’s erratic trade policies.
Mexico’s President Sheinbaum at the G7
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney invited Mexico’s President Sheinbaum, alongside other heads of state from Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Australia, Ukraine, and India. The primary goal is to establish a strategy and unite fronts against Trump’s erratic tariff policies and potential threats to the USMCA due for review next year, possibly sooner rather than later.
Sheinbaum aims to secure Canada’s commitment to the trilateral agreement and prevent Mexico from being left at a disadvantage in negotiations with Trump.
Potential Bilateral Meeting with Trump
It is anticipated that Sheinbaum and Trump will meet on the sidelines of the G7 summit, marking their first face-to-face encounter. This meeting could provide an opportunity for both leaders to address critical issues affecting Mexico.
Key Issues for President Sheinbaum
During this bilateral meeting, Sheinbaum is expected to discuss:
– Tariffs imposed by Trump on Mexican exports
– The future of the USMCA
– Deportation policies and demands for respect of due process and migrants’ individual rights
– The proposed tax on remittances under discussion in the U.S. Congress
– Clarification of Trump’s assertive statement, “we will mobilize”
Strategies for Engagement
Sheinbaum should recognize that Trump may not comprehend the negative impact of his tariff and deportation policies on the U.S. economy. Instead of trying to convince Trump, she should focus on forming alliances with affected U.S. businesses and emphasize the importance of preserving the USMCA, as its destruction would severely harm all three economies, particularly Mexico’s.
Possible Trump Concerns
Trump might raise concerns about:
1. Alleged alliances or protection of Mexican public figures (current and former) with criminal organizations and drug trafficking groups, including ex-President López Obrador, state secretaries, legislators, and governors.
2. Mexico’s role as a “narco-state,” citing its involvement in fentanyl trafficking to the U.S.
Sheinbaum should counter these claims with solid evidence of her government’s efforts to address these issues.
Mexico’s Compliance with the USMCA
Trump may also question Mexico’s adherence to the USMCA, citing:
– The dissolution of the Federal Telecommunications Institute (IFT) and the Federal Competition Commission (Cofece)
– Favoritism towards Pemex and CFE
– Discrimination against U.S. businesses
– Potential undermining of an independent judiciary and the resulting legal uncertainty for U.S. private companies investing in or conducting business with Mexican counterparts
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What are the main topics of discussion at the G7 summit? A: The agenda includes community protection, climate change, crime organization combat, global economic state, energy security, growth impetus, artificial intelligence, and technological change.
- Q: Why is Mexico’s President Sheinbaum attending the G7? A: To strategize against Trump’s erratic tariff policies and ensure Canada’s commitment to the USMCA.
- Q: What issues might Sheinbaum discuss with Trump? A: Tariffs on Mexican exports, USMCA future, deportation policies, proposed remittance tax, and Trump’s assertive statements.
- Q: How should Sheinbaum address Trump’s concerns? A: By providing concrete evidence of her government’s efforts to tackle the issues and emphasizing the importance of preserving the USMCA.
- Q: What potential concerns might Trump raise regarding Mexico? A: Allegations of ties between Mexican public figures and criminal organizations, Mexico’s role as a narco-state, and noncompliance with the USMCA.
