Introduction
During her speech at the Zócalo last Sunday, Mexico City’s Chief of Government, Claudia Sheinbaum, presented a transparent account of the city’s economic situation. Her focus was primarily on political and social agendas rather than boasting about economic achievements.
Political and Social Agendas
Sheinbaum highlighted the constitutional reforms that have significantly altered power distribution within Mexico’s state apparatus. These reforms were initiated under former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration in 2018. Sheinbaum has chosen to continue these programs with some additions.
Economic Performance Overview
Sheinbaum’s speech included a brief review of the economy, mentioning variables such as GDP growth, employment, inflation, exchange rates, and foreign investment. However, she refrained from making concrete comparisons or providing detailed quantitative assessments.
Optimistic Growth Projection
Sheinbaum confidently stated that Mexico’s economy would grow at an annual rate of 1.2% by 2025. However, this projection seems overly optimistic given recent data. For instance, the Bank of Mexico’s September 2025 Enquiry among Private Sector Economists estimated a mere 0.5% GDP growth for Mexico in 2025.
Investment and Consumption
According to data released by INEGI up to July, achieving the projected growth rate appears unlikely. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation data shows a significant drop in July 2025 compared to July 2024, with an 7.2% decline. This trend has persisted for 11 consecutive months.
Regarding private consumption, another crucial GDP growth indicator, INEGI’s July data suggests stagnation. The average Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption in the Domestic Market for January-July 2025 shows a slight decrease of 0.13% compared to the same period in 2024, when the GDP grew at 1.2% annually.
Pemex Performance
Sheinbaum’s speech touched upon Pemex, Mexico’s state-owned oil company, likely to appeal to national sentiment. She avoided discussing the declining daily production volumes, which had fluctuated until August 2025. The average daily production dropped by 105,000 barrels compared to September 2024, the last month of López Obrador’s term.
Moreover, Sheinbaum’s claim about Dos Bocas refinery’s production volume of 270,000 barrels per day is unsubstantiated. The August Pemex report indicates that the refinery produced only 102,700 barrels of oil daily. This is a 40.4% decrease from June’s production of 172,300 barrels, further down to 156,000 barrels in July.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What were the main topics of Sheinbaum’s speech? A: Sheinbaum focused on political and social agendas, including constitutional reforms and continuing López Obrador’s social programs.
- Q: What growth rate did Sheinbaum project for Mexico’s economy by 2025? A: Sheinbaum projected a 1.2% annual growth rate for Mexico’s economy by 2025, which seems overly optimistic based on recent data.
- Q: How does the investment situation in Mexico look according to INEGI data? A: INEGI’s data up to July shows a significant drop in Gross Fixed Capital Formation, making the projected growth rate unlikely.
- Q: What does the private consumption data suggest about Mexico’s GDP growth? A: Private consumption data indicates stagnation, with a slight decrease in the average Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption in the Domestic Market for January-July 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
- Q: How has Pemex’s performance been under Sheinbaum’s administration? A: Pemex’s daily production volumes have declined, and Sheinbaum’s claims about Dos Bocas refinery’s production volume are not supported by data, which shows significantly lower output.
