Introduction
Despite her high popularity, President Claudia Sheinbaum faces political weakness within Mexico’s ruling party, the Fourth Transformation (4T). This article explores the growing internal differences within the 4T and their implications for Sheinbaum’s presidency, especially in light of Mexico’s current economic challenges.
Sheinbaum’s Political Weakness
Although Sheinbaum enjoys significant popularity, her political strength is questioned. This situation echoes that of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), who, despite similar popularity, wielded considerable political power. Several instances highlight this discrepancy:
- Nepotism and Non-Reelection Proposals: Sheinbaum favored implementing these policies starting from 2027, as it would provide her more flexibility in selecting candidates. However, factions within her party and allies opposed this, resulting in the policies being postponed until 2030.
- ISSSTE Reform: Sheinbaum faced opposition from the National Coordinator of Education Workers (CNTE) regarding her proposed reforms. Despite withdrawing her proposal with flimsy excuses, the CNTE continues to threaten a national strike.
- Teuchitlán Case and Fiscal Gertz Manero: A month after the issue arose, the fiscal has yet to provide an update on the case’s progress. His evasive responses and calls for patience have done little to quell the CNTE’s threats.
The 4T’s Monolithic Image Cracking
The 4T’s unified facade is beginning to fracture due to its construction based on pacts of loyalty in exchange for allowing actions to proceed. Sheinbaum did not create these pacts; López Obrador did, shaping the 4T in his image.
These emerging differences, though unnoticed by the general public, are evident in various aspects:
- Legislator Interference: During a press conference on April 23, Sheinbaum faced pressure from federal MORENA legislators to request Adriana Montiel’s resignation as the Bienestar secretary due to allegedly “disregarding” her colleagues.
- Budget Misuse for Political Gain: Sheinbaum cannot follow López Obrador’s precedent of using the budget to win elections, as this would undermine regional and alternative leaders’ loyalty within her organization. She must set boundaries for figures like Ricardo Monreal, Ernesto Noroña, and others.
Economic Challenges and Judicial Elections
Mexico’s economy has been “cooling” since August, with the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 experiencing economic contraction. Experts predict a possible recession, with international organizations like the OECD, IMF, and UNCTAD forecasting a 0% growth rate for Mexico’s economy at best.
Further complicating matters, Senator Fernández Noroña has pointed out that a “dozen” pro-narco candidates have infiltrated judicial campaigns. López Obrador dismisses the issue, deferring responsibility to the Electoral Tribunal. Moreover, Sheinbaum’s prohibition of 4T and allied party campaigns at the expense of judicial candidates has left many 4T leaders distancing themselves from the impending judicial disaster.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the internal differences within the 4T? The 4T is experiencing growing internal divisions, with factions opposing Sheinbaum’s proposals and undermining her political authority.
- How does Sheinbaum’s popularity contrast with her political strength? Despite high popularity, Sheinbaum lacks the political clout demonstrated by AMLO, as evidenced by her struggles with party factions and external groups.
- What economic challenges does Mexico face? Mexico’s economy has been contracting since late 2024, with experts predicting a possible recession and minimal growth prospects.
Conclusion
The timing of these internal 4T divisions could not be worse, as Mexico grapples with economic difficulties. The question remains whether a weak presidency, coupled with a nonexistent opposition and powerful factional interests tied to corrupt politics and organized crime, serves Mexico’s best interests.
