Introduction to Claudia Sheinbaum’s Administration
Claudia Sheinbaum has been at the helm of Mexico’s government for four quarters, and her tenure has been marked by stagnant economic growth. Out of these four quarters, two have witnessed declines, while the remaining two have seen growth rates far below one percent.
Economic Stagnation and Lack of Growth
Mexico’s economy is currently stagnant, neither near a recession nor experiencing the minimal inherent growth that existed before the Fourth Transformation took power. This growth, which opponents previously criticized, has been absent for seven years under this regime.
The average growth rate of Mexico’s economy over these seven years, from the third quarter of 2018 to the third quarter of 2025, stands at a mere 0.03 percent.
This period of seven years without economic growth has left little hope for future improvement. If this year concludes more dynamically, particularly in the tertiary sector, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) might expand annually by 0.5 percent.
Analysts consulted by Banco de México predict a 1.35 percent GDP growth for 2026, while some forecasters anticipate a 2.0 percent growth for 2027. However, 2027 also appears financially challenging due to the slow fiscal correction following irresponsible spending and borrowing in 2024, insufficient economic growth to meet fiscal targets, and the approaching election year.
Government Responsibility vs. Heritage and External Factors
Where do the current government’s responsibilities lie in the poor economic performance, and where do heritage and external factors play a role?
Undoubtedly, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s mismanagement of the economy is the primary reason for more than six years without growth. His excessive public spending, particularly on infrastructure projects that instead of fostering growth, inherited greater subsidy costs for their maintenance, has caused significant harm.
The most damaging aspect of López Obrador’s tenure, however, was the erosion of business confidence.
Sheinbaum’s administration has been calling for fiscal corrections, growth drivers, and infrastructure investments this year. Externally, Donald Trump’s persistent threat to disrupt trade chains undeniably impacts the secondary sector, affecting investment decisions and delaying industrial expansion plans.
Moreover, several decisions made by the current government during its first year of administration have negatively affected economic performance. This administration initiated the takeover of the Judicial Power, and now it is crafting a counter-electoral reform with clear authoritarian undertones.
The true challenge for Claudia Sheinbaum’s government is not just avoiding a potential recession but transcending the lost six years under López Obrador. The real task is to demonstrate a distinct economic project that prioritizes investment, legal certainty, and confidence generation – elements essential for growth, which the Fourth Transformation cannot deny.
