Introduction
As 2025 draws to a close, Mexico’s economic growth remains sluggish, and inflation persists, according to the latest revision of annual forecasts by experts consulted monthly by the Bank of Mexico.
Economic Growth Forecasts
In December 2024, experts anticipated a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 1.12% for 2025. However, the most recent survey indicates that their expectations have been revised downwards, with an estimated growth of only 0.39% for the year.
Experts’ Inflation Forecasts
These experts were previously optimistic about the impact of monetary policy. In 2024, they forecasted a subjacent inflation rate of 3.72% by the end of 2025. However, a year later, as the final result nears, they now estimate a 4.24% inflation rate, signaling a setback in the fight against inflation.
Key Obstacles to Economic Growth
The monthly survey among about 40 private and foreign sector economic analysis and consultancy groups highlights three factors that could hinder Mexico’s economic activity, according to these experts.
For many months and years, the majority of experts have identified governance issues as the primary burden on Mexico’s economic activity. In May 2023, when Donald Trump’s trade threats loomed large over Mexico’s external conditions, these external factors were deemed the main danger.
In general, according to these experts, government-related factors are the ones impeding Mexico’s development: public security issues, lack of rule of law, political internal uncertainty, corruption, and impunity. These are policy failures with no political cost among broad social sectors, which hinders accountability and perpetuates the vicious cycle of current welfare policies.
Future Economic Prospects
The 2025 estimates are more of a recapitulation than a prediction. However, data for 2026 and the beginning of 2027 suggests Mexico’s economic fate will not change significantly: low growth and high inflation.
- 2026 GDP Growth: Experts estimate a 1.15% expansion, amidst uncertainties in North American trade.
- 2027 GDP Growth: With the same basis for prediction, experts forecast a 1.85% expansion, far below Mexico’s economic growth potential under previous political regimes.
Subjacent inflation, a better inflation indicator, is estimated at 3.90% for 2026 and 3.75% by the end of 2027, both well above the 3.0% target.
Conclusion
Mexico’s economic outlook is marked by inertia and frustration. The 2025 expectations correction confirms the double blow of low growth and high inflation, which experts predict will persist at least until 2027.
