Introduction to the Issue
A recurring topic in telecommunications is the standardization of statistics and criteria for measuring active mobile lines to ensure reliable comparability over time and among operators. In December 2023, the Mexican Federal Telecommunications Institute (IFT) launched a public consultation to harmonize mobile line counting criteria. Participants included operators, experts, and academia, agreeing that an appropriate metric could be based on lines with outgoing traffic in the last 90 days.
Current Situation and Proposed Changes
The recent IFT figures, published on July 7, reportedly considered lines with both incoming and outgoing voice traffic as well as mobile data usage over the last 90 days. However, this approach fell short of establishing a truly uniform criterion centered on outgoing traffic, which would more accurately reflect the active user base.
If this metric were strictly applied, the number of active lines in Mexico would drop from 155.6 million reported officially in the first quarter to 120.9 million, a 22.3% reduction.
This situation arises because operators can artificially “breathe life” into a dormant line by merely receiving an SMS promotion.
Impact on Major Operators
- Telcel: The dominant economic agent reported 84.0 million lines to the Mexican Stock Exchange using the unusual 365-day criterion. To the IFT, Telcel reported 81.3 million lines with data traffic, but a realistic calculation places the number of lines with outgoing traffic in the last three months at around 72.1 million.
- Movistar: This operator does not publicly report its line count but declared 21.1 million lines to the IFT, stopping counting a user after 180 days of inactivity. Under the 90-day criterion, the line count drops to 10.8 million.
- AT&T: The only operator adjusting line activity to 90 days of inactivity, aligning with US standards, reported 23.6 million total lines to the BMV and 23.2 million to the IFT, with the difference explained by resale lines.
- BAIT: Reporting 19.8 million active lines to the Stock Exchange, BAIT disconnects users after 180 days of inactivity. Under the 90-day criterion, its base would be 10.1 million lines.
All operators show significantly different numbers when evaluating various criteria. Telcel leads in estimating unreported lines under new criteria, with a difference of at least 11.9 million, causing severe distortion in the market and perception of operational performance.
IFT’s Challenges and Future Steps
The IFT’s failure to evaluate data has led to visible errors, such as Megamóvil reporting 1.6 million lines to the Bolsa while mentioning only 576,000 in its Bolsa report. Historically, the IFT has allowed the dominant economic agent to operate under non-technical criteria.
The IFT still has 65 days to correct its July 7 report. If it fails, the newly created ATDT will face an urgent mission: provide market certainty, ensure operator compliance with obligations, and clean up statistics of artifices.
