Introduction
Navigating a cordial relationship with Donald Trump’s administration presents both challenges and opportunities for Mexico. With both the U.S. President and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum at the beginning of their terms, there is a tactical advantage for both parties. However, as time progresses and issues become more complex, it is crucial for Mexico to institutionalize the bilateral relationship.
Current State of U.S.-Mexico Relations
Despite the existence of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), Trump’s directives often override the agreement’s letter. A refreshed approach during Trump’s second term could potentially alleviate pressure before election seasons.
Trump’s Message to Latin America
Last week, a message from the U.S. President, though nearly unnoticed, contained a powerful rebuke to Latin American politics. Beyond the order for land actions in Venezuela, a country under a dictator accused of drug trafficking, lies the reminder for Argentine officials.
Argentina’s Lesson for Mexico
Argentine President left the White House with two crucial supports: a swap line worth $20 billion and the condition that if Argentine voters don’t back Javier Milei’s political movement in the upcoming elections, forget about that lifeline.
There are no threats of CIA operations or naval presence; instead, there’s a warning that financial aid comes with electoral costs for Argentinians.
Understanding the current nature of Mexico’s regime, where López Obrador’s directives are followed meticulously despite his physical absence, sheds light on how MAGA (Make America Great Again) can transcend Trump’s presidential term.
With U.S. midterm elections approaching next year and Mexico’s elections in 2027, electoral decisions will carry more weight. This is when Mexican aid, humanitarian and sovereign, could influence dictatorships like Cuba’s.
Institutionalizing Bilateral Relations
Given the unpredictable nature of both countries’ autocratic regimes, this period—less burdened by electoral issues—should be used to institutionalize bilateral relations, especially in commerce, given the TMEC review context.
The Mexican government has wisely managed its approach to Trump’s unpredictable administration, but the ideological gap is vast.
To avoid raising the bill during electoral times, establishing clear rules and avoiding ideological confrontations—such as aiding dictatorships—is essential.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current state of U.S.-Mexico relations under Trump’s administration? Despite the USMCA, Trump’s directives often override the agreement. A refreshed approach during his second term could potentially alleviate pressure before election seasons.
- What lesson does Argentina’s experience offer for Mexico? Argentine President secured a $20 billion swap line and electoral conditions for continued support. Mexico should establish clear rules and avoid ideological confrontations to prevent future electoral complications.
- Why is institutionalizing bilateral relations important now? With upcoming U.S. midterms and Mexico’s 2027 elections, electoral decisions will carry more weight. This period, less burdened by electoral issues, should be used to institutionalize relations, especially in commerce due to the TMEC review.
