Introduction
The recent political climate, marked by aggressive trade policies from the US President and internal power concentration measures in countries like Mexico, has resulted in an economic growth rate close to zero. This uncertainty not only affects Mexico and the US but also impacts global investment and spending decisions.
Mexico’s Economic Dependence on the US
Mexico, being closely tied to the US economy, faces significant challenges due to the current situation. The threat of losing economic ties with the US could severely damage Mexico’s economy, as the country has spent three decades strengthening these connections.
It would be demagoguery to claim that Mexico is prepared for a potential rupture of the commercial agreement with the US and Canada. Such a break would be tantamount to economic ruin, given Mexico’s heavy reliance on these partnerships.
The Devastating Impact of Internal Policies
Beyond trade, internal policies are eroding trust and confidence. The upcoming transition, where the regime assumes control of the judiciary, poses a significant threat to democracy. Those who risk their capital will be less susceptible to official propaganda, making it harder for the regime to garner public support.
Recent surveys, such as one conducted by the Center for Sociological Research in Spain, reveal that 17% of Spanish youth aged 18-34 prefer an authoritarian regime, despite never experiencing Francisco Franco’s rule. In Mexico, the Latinobarómetro 2023 report indicates that democratic support has dropped from 43% to 35% in just three years, with 56% of Mexicans willing to vote for a government that solves their problems, even if it disregards the law.
The allure of authoritarianism, promising solutions in exchange for support, has been a popular choice. However, the consequences of such decisions are only beginning to surface, and everyone will eventually bear the brunt of these repercussions.
Potential Tensions and Negotiations
Despite the looming threats, there is a possibility that Donald Trump’s aggressive stance could lead to a less equitable renegotiation of the USMCA, potentially saving Mexico’s economy—albeit temporarily.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the consequences of recent US trade policies and internal power concentration measures in countries like Mexico? These actions have resulted in near-zero economic growth, causing uncertainty that impacts global investment and spending decisions.
- How dependent is Mexico’s economy on the US? Mexico has built strong economic ties with the US over three decades, making a rupture of these partnerships economically devastating.
- What do recent surveys reveal about democratic support in Spain and Mexico? In Spain, 17% of young adults prefer an authoritarian regime. In Mexico, democratic support has dropped from 43% to 35% in three years, with 56% willing to vote for a problem-solving government that disregards the law.
- Could Donald Trump’s aggressive stance lead to a less equitable USMCA renegotiation? There is a possibility that Trump’s actions could result in a less favorable USMCA for Mexico, providing temporary economic relief.
