Introduction
Every time this date arrives, marked by the Fiscal Responsibility Law as the deadline for presenting what is commonly known as the Economic Package, there is great anticipation about the country’s future fiscal, financial, and macroeconomic outlook.
Tax Modifications and Fiscal Policy
The public’s attention primarily revolves around potential tax changes, which, though not quite a full-fledged fiscal reform, could see adjustments in the rates of certain taxes within the Miscellaneous Fiscal provisions.
However, this year’s document might hold more significance due to various circumstances.
Presidential Influence and Legislative Changes
The Economic Package, encompassing the General Criteria of Economic Policy, the Federal Income Law initiative, the Federal Expenditure Budget project, and the Miscellaneous Fiscal provisions, might now proceed without a single alteration from presidential will.
Previously, the majority legislative support of the ruling party automatically approved any presidential initiative. However, the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation invalidated some of López Obrador’s dispositions, like certain articles of the Federal Austerity Republican Law. This filter is now removed.
Economic Realities and Fiscal Projections
The Economic Package presents a clear divergence between the Economic Criteria and the actual state of an economy without growth. Despite Hacienda’s adjustments in its Internal Product Bruto (GDP) expansion estimates for this year, they remain significantly higher than analysts’ projections.
It’s highly likely that official 2026 estimates will repeat the formula of excessive optimism. However, there’s particular attention, for instance, from credit rating agencies, on the trajectory of public debt and fiscal deficit.
This is crucial because, in the coming year, maintaining the course of correcting the excesses from López Obrador’s sixth year of governance and incorporating the costs of Pemex’s new rescue plan is essential.
This blend of an effective mechanism to reduce Pemex’s fiscal burden and preserving macroeconomic health generates significant tension in the markets.
Uncertainties and External Factors
The year 2026 is filled with uncertainties regarding generating investor confidence, as planned by the federal government’s Plan Mexico.
Domestically, it’s evident that many business decisions are being delayed until the interaction between the judicial power and presidential desires versus the law itself is clear.
Externally, we’ve already experienced this year the repercussions of the U.S.’s policy changes, which are merely a prelude to the crucial 2026.
Practically, the review, renegotiation, or cancellation process of the agreement known as T-MEC begins in January 2026, and each possibility will yield different results.
Therefore, the 2026 Economic Package must underpin all these expectations regarding fiscal performance, Pemex’s financial rescue, judicial action trust, and trade consequences of Donald Trump’s tariff policy.
It must be a robust, credible, and consistent package.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the Economic Package? It’s a comprehensive document outlining the country’s fiscal, financial, and macroeconomic plans for the upcoming year.
- Why is 2026 significant? It’s a year of many uncertainties, especially concerning generating investor confidence and navigating potential changes in U.S. trade policies.
- What are the potential tax changes? While not a full-fledged fiscal reform, there could be adjustments in the rates of certain taxes within the Miscellaneous Fiscal provisions.
- How will the public debt and fiscal deficit be managed? Credit rating agencies are closely watching the trajectory of public debt and fiscal deficit, crucial for maintaining the course of correcting past excesses.
- What are the implications of T-MEC changes? The review, renegotiation, or cancellation process of the T-MEC agreement begins in January 2026, potentially leading to various economic outcomes.
