Introduction
In the context of Mexico’s Fourth Transformation, it is crucial to differentiate between perception and reality. Much like Sancho’s advice to Don Quixote, distinguishing between appearances and the truth is essential. The morenista government has been cultivating an image of invincibility for seven years, but beneath this intimidating narrative lies a more fragile project—a “molino de viento” (windmill) in disguise).
Claudia Sheinbaum’s Popularity and Morena’s Standing
President Claudia Sheinbaum inherited the popular support from her predecessor, possibly even amplifying it. However, Morena, the political party she represents, has not seen a similar increase in popularity. According to an Enkoll survey on its first year of governance, Morena has 16 fewer points than Sheinbaum and lost 6% of Mexicans who previously identified with the project.
- Factors affecting Morena’s popularity: Scandals involving party members, such as Rocha Moya’s defiance, Adán Augusto’s lavish spending, Noroña’s contradictions, Andy’s overseas travels, and Governor Nahle’s salary controversy.
- Only 43% of Mexicans believe Claudia Sheinbaum can control her party, indicating potential internal strife.
The Myth of Opposition-Free Governance
The notion that opposition is nonexistent and three-quarters of the country is governed by Morena or its allies is shaky. A closer look at municipal governance reveals a different picture: Morena, the Labor Party, and the Green Party control 46% of municipalities. In Puebla and Morelos, despite morenista state governments, over 75% of municipalities chose the opposition. Nuevo León, governed by Movement Citizen, has only 14% support for the ruling party.
Key takeaway: Most Mexican municipalities are not governed by Morena or its allies.
Shifting Narratives and Growing Concerns
Seven years of governance have changed the face of the narrative that once absolved Morena while vilifying the past. Insecurity, which was attempted to be pinned on Calderón’s administration, has resurfaced. Today, 63% of Mexicans report feeling insecure, with Culiacán, Ecatepec de Morelos, and Uruapan (all governed by Morena) having the worst perceptions.
Erosion of Support and Political Maneuvers
As concerns grow, the cracks in Morena’s facade become more apparent. Recently, morenista bots initiated a smear campaign against Carlos Manzo, questioning his integrity due to an interview with opposition figures. This tactic reflects their inability to distance the government from controversial events, such as assassinations.
The discussion around advancing the revocation of mandate to the 2027 election aims to include Sheinbaum on the ballot, hoping her popularity will offset potential rejection of the party brand or disappointment with questionable candidates.
Meanwhile, the former president prepares for a new book release, possibly with a promotional tour.
Key takeaway: Morena’s reliance on narratives, bots for defamation, and securing a favorable ballot indicates its precarious position.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: How has Morena’s popularity fared under Claudia Sheinbaum’s leadership? A: Morena has experienced a decline in popularity, with 16 fewer points than Sheinbaum, and lost support from 6% of Mexicans who previously identified with the project.
- Q: Is the opposition virtually nonexistent in Mexico’s governance? A: No, despite morenista state governments in Puebla and Morelos, over 75% of municipalities chose the opposition.
- Q: How has insecurity affected Morena’s narrative? A: Insecurity, once pinned on Calderón’s administration, has resurfaced under Morena’s governance, with 63% of Mexicans reporting feelings of insecurity.
- Q: What are Morena’s strategies to maintain power? A: Morena employs smear campaigns, seeks to include Sheinbaum on the ballot for the 2027 revocation of mandate, and relies heavily on narratives to maintain support.
