Historical Immigration Trends in the U.S.
The U.S. population has been largely shaped by massive immigrations throughout history. Over time, the origins of migratory flows have shifted, but in absolute terms, the countries that have contributed the most immigrants are: Mexico (over 11 million in the 20th and 21st centuries), Germany (over 7 million from mid-19th century to mid-20th century), Ireland (nearly 5 million, mainly in the 19th century), and Italy (over 4 million between 1880 and 1920). In the 20th and 21st centuries, immigration from India (3.2 million), China (2.4 million), and the Philippines (2 million) has significantly increased.
Recent Decline in Immigration
In recent years, particularly during the Trump presidency, a historic decline in immigration has been observed, disrupting the labor market balance. The American Enterprise Institute, a highly influential think tank, estimates that by 2025, net immigration could result in a record-breaking figure ranging from -525,000 to 115,000 people. This reflects sharp reductions in both forced and voluntary entries, along with unprecedented restrictive immigration policies.
Paradox in the U.S. Labor Market
Despite the decline in immigration, the U.S. unemployment rate has not increased significantly, fluctuating between 4.0% and 4.3% for over a year. This may seem positive, but it is not sustainable. Aging baby boomers and declining birth rates are contracting population growth, making immigration nearly the sole driver of population increase. If immigrant numbers continue to fall, labor demand could outpace supply, potentially leading to substantial unemployment in the coming years.
Sectors Vulnerable to Labor Shortages
Certain sectors are highly exposed to foreign labor shortages. For instance, in landscaping, construction, and domestic employment, non-U.S. workers constitute 24% to 33% of the workforce. An estimated 42% of fieldworkers are foreigners without legal working status. Some analysts predict that reduced immigration could subtract 0.3% to 0.4% percentage points from U.S. GDP growth in 2025.
Social and Macroeconomic Consequences
A smaller labor population will have negative social consequences alongside macroeconomic impacts: reduced economic dynamism, loss of competitiveness, increased fiscal pressure for unemployment insurance and social programs, and a shrinking tax base.
Expert Opinion
John Müller (Diario ABC, September 1, 2025) accurately pointed out: “Ignoring the structural role of immigration in modern economies is a luxury that the U.S. cannot afford. The profound changes Trump is engineering in the labor market could lead to increased intergenerational tension, regional fragmentation among states relying more on immigration for growth, a stronger anti-immigrant narrative, and an impoverished innovative environment.”
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: How has immigration shaped the U.S. population? A: Immigration has significantly contributed to the U.S. population, with major influxes from countries like Mexico, Germany, Ireland, and Italy.
- Q: What is the current trend in U.S. immigration? A: There has been a historic decline in immigration, with potential net figures ranging from -525,000 to 115,000 by 2025.
- Q: How has the labor market reacted to declining immigration? A: Despite reduced immigration, the U.S. unemployment rate has not increased significantly, but this situation is not sustainable.
- Q: Which sectors are most vulnerable to labor shortages? A: Sectors like landscaping, construction, and domestic employment heavily rely on non-U.S. workers.
- Q: What are the potential consequences of a smaller labor population? A: Negative social and macroeconomic impacts, including reduced economic dynamism and increased fiscal pressure.
