Introduction
Claudia Sheinbaum, the President of Mexico City, took office with a clear mission: to cleanse politics from the vices that turned the PRI and PAN into synonyms for corruption, impunity, and complicity with crime. However, ten months into her presidency, this narrative is crumbling, not due to opposition, media, or Donald Trump, but because of one of her own: Adán Augusto López.
The Scandal
Adán Augusto López’s former Secretary of Security in Tabasco, Hernán Bermúdez, is currently a fugitive, accused of leading a criminal network linked to the CJNG. He fled in January, and Interpol is now searching for him. The alarming aspect isn’t just López’s appointment of Bermúdez; it’s that, according to leaked military information (the Guacamaya Leaks), Bermúdez was already under suspicion before López kept him in the position.
Adán Augusto López: A Key Player
Adán Augusto is not just another senator. He was the Secretary of Governance under AMLO, governed Tabasco, and is a political operator for Morena and a strong figure in the ruling party. His fall is not a minor issue; it strikes at the heart of the regime. Morena’s denial of investigation, defense of his leadership, and closure around him incurs unavoidable political costs.
Internal Resistance and Political Costs
Sheinbaum cannot act as she or Morena would prefer due to internal resistances. She lacks complete control over her party and the government apparatus. There are groups operating independently, and others resisting relinquishing privileges. In this context, distancing oneself from an influential figure like Adán Augusto is not straightforward. There are costs to consider carefully.
Public Perception and International Implications
Despite high approval ratings (68%-80%) from Mitofsky, Enkoll, and other pollsters, the situation changes when discussing corruption. 85% of Mitofsky respondents perceive “much or regular” corruption in the government. In El País’ survey, corruption is the primary mistake of her administration. Only 45% approve her work in transparency matters.
Internationally, the scandal could not have come at a worse time. Trump claims Mexico is infiltrated by cartels, and the Bermúdez case, appointed by a strong Morena figure, gives him ammunition. Amidst trade negotiations with potential economic repercussions and pressure on the T-MEC, Mexico’s government cannot afford to appear weakened, divided, or unreliable.
Morena’s Damage and the Anti-Corruption Narrative
Morena’s renovation narrative sinks when one of their own becomes a symbol of what they promised to eradicate. How can they sustain the anti-corruption discourse if they cannot even ask Adán Augusto to step down?
Instead of demanding a leave, they explore dubious options like sending him to a foreign service position. The old formula: reward those causing discomfort with a consulship. This contradicts Morena’s pledge never to do so.
Sheinbaum’s Dilemma
Claudia Sheinbaum must decide whether to break from this logic or perpetuate it. She must either distance herself from Adán Augusto—painful as it may be politically—or face the consequences of carrying him for the next five years. The problem lies within, not without.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the scandal about? The former Secretary of Security in Tabasco under Adán Augusto López, Hernán Bermúdez, is a fugitive accused of leading a criminal network linked to the CJNG. Despite being under suspicion, López kept him in the position.
- Who is Adán Augusto López? He is a political operator for Morena, former Secretary of Governance under AMLO, and ex-governor of Tabasco. His influence within Morena makes his current situation a significant issue for Sheinbaum’s administration.
- What are the internal and external implications? Internally, Morena faces resistance and political costs due to Adán Augusto’s situation. Externally, the scandal weakens Mexico’s position in trade negotiations with the U.S., as Trump uses it to claim Mexican cartel infiltration.
- How does this affect Sheinbaum’s administration? Sheinbaum must decide whether to distance herself from Adán Augusto or face the consequences of carrying him for the next five years. The situation poses a severe challenge to her administration’s anti-corruption narrative.
