Labor Shortages in US Agriculture: The Consequences of Trump’s Immigration Crackdown
As we approach July 2025, the United States’ agricultural industry faces a significant threat of losing billions of dollars in revenue due to what Washington calls “President Donald Trump’s anti-immigration offensive.”
Daily news from agricultural states paints a grim picture, causing anxiety among farmers across the country. In key agricultural states like California, Texas, and Pennsylvania, there’s a growing shortage of workers willing to engage in planting, caring for, and harvesting crops.
The Vital Role of Undocumented Workers in US Agriculture
For decades, Mexican and Central American immigrants have been crucial to the development of US agriculture. They plant, tend, and harvest the fruits, vegetables, and grains that feed 340 million Americans. Moreover, their labor supports the economies of numerous Midwestern states through sales of crops like corn, wheat, and sorghum to Mexico and Latin America.
The dirty little secret in the US is that its agriculture, which sustains so many people, has relied heavily on workers who have never been given a path to legal status. These workers have tolerated historical mistreatment, low wages, and minimal labor benefits while paying taxes.
The Agricultural Powerhouses
States with High GDP Contribution from Agriculture:
- South Dakota: Agriculture contributes 5.78% to the national GDP. Kristi Noem, the current Secretary of Homeland Security, whose department oversees immigration, is a staunch opponent of undocumented workers in agriculture. Her efforts to please Trump are harming South Dakota’s agricultural sector.
- Nebraska: Contributing 4.62% to the US GDP, it’s another significant agricultural contributor.
- North Dakota: Agriculture accounts for 4.46% of its GDP.
- Iowa: With 4.30% of its GDP coming from agriculture.
- Idaho: Agriculture contributes 4.28% to its GDP.
States with High Agricultural Production Value in 2023:
- California: Leading the nation in agricultural production value, followed by:
- Iowa
- Nebraska
- Texas
- Illinois
States with a High Proportion of Farmers in the Population:
- South Dakota: Farmers represent 5.61% of the state’s population.
- North Dakota: 5.59% of its population is engaged in agriculture.
- Iowa: Farmers make up 4.8% of the population; Nebraska, 4.08%.
- Montana: 4.01% of its population is involved in agriculture.
The Impact of Trump’s Immigration Policies on Agriculture
Enforcement operations have already disrupted agricultural activities in certain regions, potentially causing a 30 billion dollar decline in agricultural production by the end of 2025.
The US Business Immigration Coalition
Replacing undocumented workers poses a significant challenge, as finding US citizens for these low-paying, physically demanding jobs is difficult. While some argue that automation is the future, it’s not always a viable or immediate solution, especially for delicate crops.
Trump’s Potential Solutions
The most significant proposal involves creating a new type of work permit for undocumented agricultural workers, allowing them to legally remain in the US, continue working, and pay taxes without a pathway to citizenship.
- Farmers would vouch for workers who perform well and contribute to their operations, protecting them from deportation.
- A limited legalization process could be implemented, excluding families who would need to stay in their home countries or return.
- This permit system would allow workers to legally enter and exit the US seasonally, supported by a farmer or employer, ensuring controlled processes instead of sudden deportations.
- The government could establish a temporary visa system requiring workers to pay taxes and giving farmers some control over the process.
Unresolved Details and Ongoing Internal Conflicts
The plan’s details remain unclear, and the administration faces conflicting internal pressures regarding immigration law enforcement.
Stephen Miller, Trump’s key advisor on immigration, argues that mass deportations will alter the labor market response, enabling US citizens to take agricultural jobs instead. However, he seems to disregard the fact that higher wages and benefits would increase product prices.
For instance, strawberry pickers earn $2.00 to $3.00 per 8-pound basket. Even tripling this wage wouldn’t attract US citizens to do the job, as strawberry prices would triple too, making them unaffordable for consumers.
As more agricultural organizations demand Trump reform the H-2A visa program for foreign agricultural workers, it’s clear that seasonal labor needs extend beyond nine months for activities like dairy farming and meat processing.
Trump claims to be the most intelligent president in history, asserting that no previous president considered his approach to illegal immigration. However, upon examination, it becomes evident that past presidents understood the potential harm to the US economy from relying on undocumented agricultural labor—and thus refrained from making changes.
The dirty little secret in the US is that its economy would suffer without the daily exploitation of undocumented agricultural workers.
