Mexico’s Economic Performance: A Closer Look
The latest available data on Mexico’s economic behavior, awaiting the first reading of Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025 this Friday, is the November Global Activity Economic Indicator (IGAE), which recorded a monthly decline of -0.16 percent.
Using the IGAE as a reference, annual growth in November last year was only 0.37%, foreshadowing the poor performance of the GDP in 2025 unless there are last-minute surprises from INEGI.
Official Narrative vs. Economic Reality
The official narrative aims to instill faith in its other data for its political clientele, but the reality is stubborn. Negative effects are accumulating. It’s not just the November IGAE or the 2025 GDP data; it’s the reality that Mexico’s economy has experienced a poor expansion of 0.8% on average annually during this self-proclaimed Fourth Transformation, which is essentially stagnation.
In reality, it’s a zero-economy because it’s retreating against its own demographic needs. In 2025, the formal job creation record before the IMSS was a tragedy that has been swept under the rug, as only around 270,000 jobs were created for a country that incorporates 1.2 million young people into its labor force each year.
Morena’s Acknowledgment and the Informal Economy
From Morena’s ranks, the ruling party, they acknowledge this with cynicism; organized crime is one of the main employers in the country, in an economy sustained by over 55% labor informality.
President Claudia Sheinbaum isolates herself with her favored economists to validate her Mexican humanism model, but reality is stubborn and doesn’t negotiate with ideology. Especially not with those proposals filled with resentment and ignorance that López Obrador inherited.
The Need for Common Sense
What the regime urgently needs is a dose of common sense, necessary to acknowledge the obvious: capital doesn’t flow where rules are altered by decree. The capture of the Judicial Power is, in the eyes of the market, the end of legal certainty.
Common sense dictates that for business owners, a place without the rule of law is not an attractive investment destination, whether it’s due to kidnappings or daylight robberies on highways.
Security vs. Investment Attraction
While it’s a challenge for the official narrative to provide explanations, for a country craving peace and justice, it’s good news that authorities have detained individuals like the “Botox” or Canadian drug traffickers, even if it’s by the FBI.
The regime loves the rhetoric of sovereignty, but this weekend made it clear that a winter storm causes more harm than good for attracting private foreign investments in Mexico’s energy sector.
The Stagnant Economy: A Result of Political Control
Mexico’s economic stagnation isn’t just a statistical detail; it’s the outcome of a model determined to sacrifice efficiency for political control.
What Mexico needs are leaders who understand that without legal certainty and private investment in infrastructure, the only safe destination is this zero-economy.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the latest data on Mexico’s economic performance? The November Global Activity Economic Indicator (IGAE) showed a monthly decline of -0.16 percent, with an annual growth rate of 0.37%.
- How has Mexico’s economy performed during the Fourth Transformation? The average annual expansion has been a meager 0.8%, indicating stagnation.
- What challenges does Mexico’s labor market face? Despite a need for 1.2 million new jobs annually, only around 270,000 formal jobs were created in 2025, with over 55% of the workforce in informal employment.
- Why is legal certainty crucial for investment? Without it, businesses are less likely to invest in a country where rules can be altered by decree, and where security issues like kidnappings and robberies persist.
- How does Mexico’s security situation impact foreign investment? While detaining criminals is positive, ongoing security concerns—like daylight robberies on highways—can deter private foreign investments in sectors like energy.
