Introduction
Every event, whether fortuitous or planned, alters history in some way. Government decisions, acts of corruption, and natural disasters all modify the future to varying degrees. However, certain transcendent events drastically alter a government’s course and consequently that of a nation and its inhabitants. Between Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in June 2024 and her first year in office, three such moments significantly shifted the public agenda and power structures.
1. August 26, 2024: Securing the Qualified Majority
Background: Claudia Sheinbaum’s coalition (Morena-PV-PT) needed three additional senators to form a qualified majority in the Mexican Senate, which would grant them significant constitutional reform powers.
The Event: After the election, the electoral tribunal granted two senators from opposing parties (PRD) who did not meet the 3% threshold, causing them to join the 4T coalition. The remaining senator was expected to come from either the PRI, MC, or PAN. These parties vowed unity to prevent the qualified majority.
The Vote: During the Judicial Reform vote, a PAN senator announced support for Morena, while another MC senator cited personal reasons for absence. Either decision would have secured the qualified majority, but the PAN senator’s defection was more newsworthy due to his family’s history of opposition to López Obrador.
Effect
With the numbers to reform the Constitution, the ruling coalition shifted from managing simple majorities to designing rules. The discussion then focused on the depth of changes rather than whether they would occur.
2. September 11, 2024: Judicial Reform – The Turning Point
Background: Having secured the Senate majority, the ruling coalition aimed to pass the Judicial Reform quickly through the Chamber of Deputies and local congresses.
The Event: On September 11, the political regime crumbled as the Judicial Reform was approved. This marked a shift from a governing model López Obrador disapproved of to one where the three powers could share a common ideology without obstructing each other’s programs.
Effect
Regardless of support or reservations, the political system moved beyond familiar territory. Constitutional control and perceptions of independence came under scrutiny. Future court decisions will be assessed for their credibility in upholding the new political design.
3. January 20, 2025: Trump’s Return and the Bilateral Agenda
Background: Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency reignited trade threats, security concerns, and migration issues, merging them into a single policy package.
The Event: Mexico’s economic and security secretaries adopted a more reactive Washington agenda, prioritizing border security over other concerns.
Effect
Mexico’s domestic politics increasingly mirrored U.S. priorities, with nearshoring opportunities competing against regulatory uncertainty and public safety taking precedence over border security.
Risks and Opportunities
- Risk: Overconfidence in the ability to change rules may lead to a powerful but unpopular regime without tangible results in security, justice, or growth.
- Opportunity: Utilize the governance window to prioritize policies, safeguard them with evidence, and establish realistic expectations. Address corruption and modernize the state.
