Introduction
In a challenging year where economic growth is expected to be minimal, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum faces the task of creating strong foundations to stabilize the economy. The urgency lies in consolidating strategies, as informal employment continues to rise with record-breaking figures.
The Informal Economy
According to the National Institute of Statistics (Inegi), in June, there were 60.2 million occupied individuals, with 33 million being informal workers. ManpowerGroup reports that the labor informality rate for June 2025 was 54.8%, up from 53.8% in June 2024.
While the informal economy contributes to the overall economy, it does not do so in the same manner as formal contributors. Expanding the tax base is thus a crucial, yet unmet challenge.
The Need for a Tailored Tax System
A key question is whether the current government will strengthen the tax base and support the entire business sector, a task that the former Canacintra head, Esperanza Ortega, had been diligently working on.
The proposal is to establish a differentiated tax scheme within the SAT, led by Antonio Martínez Dagnino, to support small businesses. This scheme would include monthly tax collection, aligning expense and income accounting, as well as labor wage deduction benefits and credit schemes tailored to their size.
National Security Concerns
Coparmex President Juan José Sierra highlights the issue of extortion affecting thousands of businesses nationwide.
In the first half of 2025, Mexico recorded 5,887 extortion victims, the highest number since official records began. This represents an 83% increase compared to a decade ago.
Only 3% of extortion cases are reported due to lack of trust in authorities and fear of retaliation. Business leaders claim that extortion is not only perpetrated by organized crime but also occurs in certain municipalities and states.
There is an urgent need for legislative and executive branches to address extortion as a significant crime, implementing strategies to curtail or eliminate this insecurity hindering employment development.
Trade Agreements for Stability
Alongside a tailored tax system and enhanced national security, trade agreements with neighboring countries are essential for establishing legal certainty and fostering a more stable economic environment in 2026.
Current Economic Situation
The current economic growth stands at 0.2%, with evident deceleration. Adding to this, the Centro de Estudios Económicos del Sector Privado (CEESP) expects a modest 0.4% growth in the second half of 2025.
Given these circumstances, support programs for Plan México, the national health plan, and Pemex operations could act as catalysts for investment attraction.
According to a Banxico survey, 73% of respondents agree that it’s not an opportune time for investment. The urgency to act is clear.
