Introduction
The United States under President Donald Trump and Latin America under Senator Marco Rubio are pursuing distinct agendas, much like separate train tracks running parallel. However, these paths intersect in certain regions, shaping the dynamics of international relations.
The OEA’s Struggles and Trump’s Discontent
On June 26, Christopher Landau, the second-in-command at the U.S. Department of State, hinted that the United States might withdraw from the OEA (Organization of American States) due to its failure to address critical issues such as Haiti’s state failure and Venezuela’s dictatorship.
The OEA has been mired in ideological disputes for decades. Former leaders like Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez once dismissed the OEA as a colonial ministry, operated from Washington. In the 21st century, the OEA found itself squeezed by mechanisms created by chavismo.
According to a source familiar with internal debates about the continental organization by the Trump administration, “If López Obrador ridiculed the OEA, and now it’s Nicolás Maduro and other presidents doing the same, very well. We will respond beyond the OEA.”
Presidential Tensions and Trade Agreements
Presidents López Obrador and Petro would prefer that U.S.-related issues remain confined to the OEA. However, President Trump directly pressures the legal situations of former Brazilian and Colombian presidents Jair Bolsonaro and Álvaro Uribe, respectively.
Canada is not exempt either. The imminent recognition of Palestine as a state has prompted Trump to condition the future trade agreement. In essence, the White House acts directly according to its interests, bypassing the OEA.
Divergent Alliances and Enmity
AMLO and Maduro have imposed their ideologies to strangle the OEA and the Lima Group. AMLO champions dogmatic diplomacy and, along with Morena, promotes the Puebla Group. Trump employs dogmatic diplomacy. Countries like Argentina, El Salvador, and Ecuador are allies of Washington, while Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Mexico are adversaries of Marco Rubio.
Remember, Trump’s America and Rubio’s Latin America.
Rubio’s Skepticism Towards AMLO and Morena
Marco Rubio remains wary of AMLO’s party, Morena. He lacks trust in them. Publicly, he has mentioned that a significant portion of Mexico’s territory is controlled by drug cartels.
Towards the end of April, Rubio confided in a close group that Mexico relations wouldn’t mirror those of the first Trump administration.
Those acquainted with Rubio know that his “pause” with Ambassador Ken Salazar—a figurative tantrum, as AMLO’s real anger was directed at the U.S. government—hasn’t been forgotten.
For this reason, several current Mexican government officials are disregarded by Washington; they are all close to AMLO. Some trust García Harfuch, while others are avoided. One such individual is the Secretary of the Interior, whose security concerns condition bilateral relations.
It’s either act or be acted upon. The quid pro quo is security for trade—targeting politicians without visas or risking the loss of agreements.
Mexico’s diplomatic threads are in the Harry Truman Building, aka Foggy Bottom, the Department of State’s headquarters in Washington. Any flirtation with anti-U.S. dictatorships will be assessed within 90 days.
The OEA has been stalled for many years; Morena, only recently.
Morena is Rubio’s adversary.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main issue between the U.S. and Latin American countries according to Trump and Rubio’s agendas? The U.S., under Trump, focuses on America, while Rubio concentrates on Latin America. Their agendas diverge, with Trump prioritizing security and trade conditions, and Rubio expressing skepticism towards left-leaning parties like Morena in Mexico.
- Why might the U.S. withdraw from the OEA? The U.S. may withdraw due to the OEA’s failure to address critical issues, such as Haiti’s state failure and Venezuela’s dictatorship.
- How do Trump and Rubio view Latin American countries? Trump’s America prioritizes security and trade conditions, while Rubio’s Latin America is marked by skepticism towards left-leaning parties like Morena in Mexico.
- What is the significance of the relationship between the U.S. and Mexico under these agendas? The relationship is strained, with Rubio wary of Morena and its ties to drug cartels. The U.S. seeks to exert pressure through security-trade conditions, targeting politicians without visas or risking trade agreements.
