Background on Trump’s Recent Actions and Statements
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has been making headlines with his aggressive stance on various international issues, particularly concerning Mexico. After allegedly attempting a military intervention in Venezuela to capture President Nicolás Maduro and leaving the dictatorship under the control of the Rodríguez brothers (Delcy as interim president and Jorge as president of the National Assembly), Trump has continued to issue threats on multiple fronts.
In a New York Times interview, Trump stated that “my own morality, my own conscience is the only thing that can stop me,” indicating his unwavering determination to act according to his beliefs, regardless of consequences.
Key Targets of Trump’s Recent Statements
- Denmark and Greenland: Trump has insisted on purchasing Greenland from Denmark, even suggesting the use of military force if the Danish government refuses to sell. This stance has strained relations between the two nations.
- Colombia: Trump has criticized Colombian President Gustavo Petro for not doing enough to curb cocaine production and trafficking, threatening military intervention if the situation doesn’t improve.
- Cuba: Trump has declared that Cuba’s communist regime will fall and that the island nation will no longer receive Venezuelan oil or funds, urging them to reach an agreement “before it’s too late.” However, he hasn’t specified the nature of this arrangement.
- Honduras: Trump has warned Honduran President Xiomara Castro not to undermine the legitimacy of Nasry Asfura, the winner of the recent presidential elections.
- Mexico: Trump has asserted that action must be taken regarding Mexican drug cartels, implying that they, not President Claudia Sheinbaum, are the actual rulers of the country.
Trump’s Conflicts with Mexico: Key Issues
Fentanyl Trafficking
One of the main points of contention between Trump and Mexico is the trafficking of fentanyl, a highly potent synthetic opioid produced in Mexico. In 2023, the U.S. seized a record amount of this drug, approximately 11,000 kilograms. However, by 2025, seizures had dropped by 57%, suggesting a decrease in fentanyl trafficking. This decline can be attributed to Mexican government actions, internal strife within the Sinaloa Cartel, and a decrease in demand, as evidenced by nearly a 40% drop in overdose deaths.
Since completely eradicating fentanyl trafficking is unrealistic, Trump’s primary concern revolves around the acceptable volume of this drug. If he insists on zero tolerance, military intervention—either unilateral or in coordination with the Mexican government—along with continued strained relations on other bilateral issues, remains likely.
T-MEC Review and Renegotiation
Another point of friction is the United States’ trade deficit with both Canada and Mexico, which Trump mistakenly views as subsidies to these trading partners. His protectionist stance, coupled with the linking of punitive tariffs to fentanyl trafficking, suggests a more rigid and protectionist U.S. position in the upcoming T-MEC review process.
Moreover, Trump has expressed grievances over Mexico’s alleged violations of the T-MEC in various sectors, including energy reform discriminating against U.S. companies, glyphosate, genetically modified corn, the elimination of autonomous regulatory bodies (Cofece and IFT), judicial reform, and permissiveness towards Chinese goods under the trade agreement. Trump has hinted at the possibility of negotiating bilateral agreements with Mexico and Canada instead of the trilateral T-MEC, despite potential losses for all parties involved.
Support for Latin American Dictatorships
Trump has criticized the Mexican government, under both López Obrador and now Sheinbaum, for cozying up to Latin American dictatorships, such as those in Venezuela and Cuba. This has caused friction within the U.S. government and Congress.
- Venezuela: The Mexican government supported Maduro’s fraudulent election, while Sheinbaum expressed displeasure with Maduro’s ousting, even showing support through various Morena members’ statements.
- Cuba: The ideological alignment of the current Mexican government with the Cuban regime is evident through economic support, such as paying for a near-slave scheme to traffic Cuban doctors and providing subsidized or free fuel (oil and gasoline) to Cuba.
It’s crucial to note that a liter of Mexican-produced gasoline is interchangeable with U.S.-produced gasoline. Consequently, Mexican government shipments of fuel to Cuba could be construed as indirect U.S. gasoline exports, potentially violating the embargo against Cuba and prompting retaliatory measures, such as banning U.S. gasoline and natural gas exports to Mexico—a move with catastrophic consequences.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main issue between Trump and Mexico? The primary points of contention are fentanyl trafficking, the T-MEC review and renegotiation, and Mexico’s alleged support for Latin American dictatorships.
- Why is fentanyl trafficking a concern for Trump? Trump views fentanyl as an “weapon of mass destruction” and aims for its complete eradication, which may lead to military intervention or strained relations with Mexico.
- What is the trade deficit issue between the U.S. and Mexico? Trump mistakenly believes that the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico and Canada represents subsidies, fueling his protectionist stance and potential punitive tariffs.
- Why is Mexico’s relationship with Latin American dictatorships a problem? Trump criticizes Mexico’s support for regimes in Venezuela and Cuba, causing friction within the U.S. government.
