Introduction
TEL AVIV – One year into his second term, Donald Trump has solidified his position as the most revolutionary U.S. president in recent history. While “America First” initially seemed like an isolationist stance, it now embodies a Hobbesian worldview where a powerful United States asserts its will over those deemed weak.
Trump’s Hobbesian Vision
In this worldview, the U.S. is unlikely to engage in military confrontations with peer powers like China or nuclear states such as Russia and North Korea. Instead, it will compete with other superpowers for resources and advanced technologies to prevent them from becoming more powerful than the U.S.
Mostly, Trump will likely restrict his involvement in what he considers his spheres of influence, as long as they remain separate from what he perceives as U.S. interests.
China’s Growing Presence in Latin America
However, Trump views China’s growing presence in Latin America as a strategic threat. He has invested billions in Brazil, included Colombia in his global Belt and Road Initiative, and heavily invested in Argentina’s lithium production—a key component in battery manufacturing.
China has also replaced U.S. soybean exporters by doubling purchases from Brazil (up to $50 billion) and buying iron ore from the country. It has transformed Chancay port in Peru into its logistical hub in the region, and Latin American e-commerce has surged by nearly 50% by 2025, linking the region to China’s data sovereignty, cybersecurity control, and surveillance expansion goals.
Moreover, China has significantly expanded its military presence across the continent through arms sales, training programs, and strategic alliances, especially with Venezuela.
Historical Context: The Monroe Doctrine
The notion that China’s presence in Latin America threatens the U.S. stems from a long-held belief. The Monroe Doctrine of 1823 established U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere, asserting that any foreign intervention in the American continent would be considered hostile.
Nearly a third of the nearly 400 U.S. interventions worldwide occurred in Latin America, where the U.S. overthrew governments deemed unfavorable to its interests, often using later-declared illegal tactics.
In 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry announced the end of the “Era of the Monroe Doctrine,” stating that the U.S. would treat Latin America as a partner rather than an sphere of influence.
However, this stance has reversed under Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy, which committed to “reaffirm and enforce” the Monroe Doctrine. The stage was set for the recent U.S. attack on Venezuela and the arrest of its president, Nicolás Maduro.
Trump’s Interest in Venezuela
Maduro was a dictator who rigged the 2014 presidential elections, devastated Venezuela’s economy, and violated human rights. Yet, the U.S. intervention had little to do with “freeing” Venezuela from Maduro’s “tyranny.” According to this logic, there are many more dictators the U.S. should overthrow, but Trump is more interested in threatening to annex Greenland.
Trump isn’t particularly interested in regime change in Venezuela. Opposition leaders Edmundo González and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado won elections, but the Trump administration refused to let either assume power, deeming them too weak and liberal to serve as effective puppets.
Instead, Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez—known for her pliability towards China and Russia—assumed the interim presidency.
U.S. Intentions in Venezuela
The NSS doesn’t mention Venezuela, but it’s clear about Trump’s intentions there. The U.S. won’t allow “non-hemispheric competitors” to “position threatening forces or capabilities, nor possess or control strategically vital assets” in the hemisphere.
In other words, Trump aims to ensure that the U.S., not its adversaries, controls Venezuela’s vast resources, starting with the world’s largest oil reserves.
Until now, China has represented about 80% of Venezuela’s annual oil sales. The remaining 20%, sold at reduced prices, includes Cuba, which has been a thorn in the U.S.’s side since 1959.
Taking control of Venezuela’s oil industry would offer multiple advantages: opportunities for U.S. oil companies, depriving China of an energy source, and weakening Cuba’s already struggling economy.
Trump would undoubtedly love to be the U.S. president who finally ousts the Cuban regime, especially as it would earn him political points among the large Cuban-American community.
Beyond oil, Venezuela might hold significant reserves of critical minerals, including rare earth elements vital for numerous high-tech industries like semiconductors.
Trump’s Global Mineral Obsession
Trump’s fixation on seizing other countries’ mineral wealth—essential, in his view, to maintain U.S. industrial hegemony—extends far beyond Venezuela.
Last year, the U.S. forced Ukraine to sign an agreement sharing benefits from selling its mineral and energy reserves, allegedly to reimburse the U.S. for defending Ukraine.
Greenland is on Trump’s radar due to its untapped reserves of rare earth elements, the largest in the world.
Consequences and Calls for Action
With the Venezuela operation, Trump openly invited China to intervene in Taiwan, simultaneously justifying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He has also paved the way for more illegal U.S. military actions in Latin America and elsewhere.
To avoid the dawn of a new Hobbesian era in international relations, condemnations won’t suffice. Emerging great powers like Germany, India, and Japan must collaborate to uphold and enforce conduct norms.
About the Author
Shlomo Ben-Ami, former Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs, is Vice President of the International Crisis Group and author of Prophets Without Honor: The 2000 Camp David Summit and the End of the Two-State Solution (Oxford University Press, 2022).
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 1995 – 2026
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