Introduction
Donald Trump’s second term as president has indeed caused a global earthquake, shaking both international economics and politics. This term is far more aggressive than his first, which was somewhat contained by the more moderate elements of his movement. Trump’s relentless imposition of arbitrary tariffs and attempts to establish one-sided bilateral agreements favorable only to the United States have created a significant trade and financial disarray, with its effects just beginning to unfold.
Impact on Mexico
Mexico has experienced a series of aftershocks from this earthquake, directly affecting its political and economic landscape. The growth paralysis that characterized the AMLO administration has been exacerbated in the first half of this year, partly due to the fear of a severe recession in the United States caused by Trump’s tariff blunders.
- Economic growth in Mexico has slowed down significantly, partly due to the uncertainty generated by Trump’s trade policies.
- The automotive industry, a crucial sector for Mexico’s economy, has been particularly affected by the ongoing trade tensions.
- Investor confidence in Mexico has wavered, causing fluctuations in the stock market and currency exchange rates.
Migration and Narcotráfico
The earthquake’s epicenter lies in two critical aspects of the U.S.-Mexico relationship: migration and narcotráfico.
- Trump’s hardline stance on migration has strained relations, with potential policy changes causing uncertainty for migrants and their families.
- His approach to narcotráfico, targeting drug cartels through disrupting their financing sources and undermining political support, has created tension.
Trump’s strategy to combat drug cartels by cutting off their funding sources and dismantling the political support that has allowed them to thrive for the past seven years is causing friction. This approach threatens to destabilize Mexico, as it involves exposing the corrupt relationships between drug lords and both formal and informal political figures.
Political Fallout
As drug lords turn into protected witnesses, they gain the privilege to expose their former protectors and even political rivals, turning their testimonies into irrefutable evidence. This situation has led to heated reactions, such as those from Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico City’s mayor, regarding accusations made against her by Ovidio Guzmán’s lawyer.
In this context, many Mexican politicians find themselves vulnerable, with their fates hanging in the balance as drug lords expose their connections to corruption.