Introduction
PRINCETON – There is a global consensus that radical intervention is necessary in a world facing crises. This is what former U.S. President Donald Trump promised, despite his growing unpopularity in the United States. Even his opponents share his belief that traditional politics no longer serves its purpose.
Historical Context and Past Interventions
However, history offers abundant lessons on where such interventionist strategies lead. The historical response is often negative, even when economic shocks initially appear beneficial, as seen in Central Europe after the collapse of communism.
The issue lies in the systemic shocks generated by policy changes, which create toxic narratives that grow over time. Suspicions of conspiracies producing the shock and foreign powers’ involvement often arise, undermining societal cohesion and political order despite initial benefits.
Trump’s Radical Approach
The Trump administration openly embraces radicalism, viewing shock therapy as a solution to global issues, from Gaza and Iran to Ukraine and Sudan. Trump wields tariffs like a weapon, impacting anyone—friend or foe—who does not immediately comply with his demands.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin argues that any suffering Americans endure due to tariffs is part of a “detoxification period.” Trump himself speaks of tariffs as an “operation” and “medicine.” Meanwhile, Russell Vought, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, explains: “We want bureaucrats to experience trauma.”
To achieve desired shock effects, the administration deliberately employs arbitrary tactics. For instance, why should closely allied and well-educated nations like South Korea and Japan unexpectedly face new 25% tariffs? According to the White House press secretary, “It’s the President’s prerogative, and those are the countries he chose.”
Secrecy and Lack of Transparency
Most “agreements” announced by Trump are secret, negotiated behind closed doors. This mirrors the methods used in Central Europe and the former Soviet Union during communism’s collapse. Michael Gorbachev’s programs of glasnost (openness) and perestroika (economic liberalization) sought systemic change. However, their implementation was inherently opaque since the goal was to replace a powerful and corrupt status quo.
Despite attempts at internal system participation, the effort eventually appeared as a corrupt deal favoring privileged sectors of the old regime. Similarly, Poland’s current political polarization stems from its post-communist transition 35 years ago.
Lessons from Poland’s Transition
Poland’s key part of the process involved negotiating communist-era debt, much of which was held by German banks. Interaction with German financiers and the German government was inevitable. However, opponents of the Polish government easily sown seeds of suspicion that it betrayed national interest, especially as EU membership became a crucial transformation strategy element.
Conspiracy Theories and Polarization
Trump’s shock therapy strategy will likely generate conspiracy theories. Some elements are already perceptible. There will be winners and many losers, especially as Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) revolution coincides with a technological revolution. As AI creates new employment patterns, a significant portion of the MAGA base will likely be displaced and rapidly develop a victim narrative.
Despite the administration’s efforts to confront the “Deep State,” some MAGA enthusiasts already complain about concessions to establishment elites. The persistence of the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking scandal is part of the problem. Just as with post-communist transformations, those in power collaborate closely with global financial titans and international capital.
The administration’s alliance with the cryptocurrency world is evident, as demonstrated by Mnuchin’s insistence that stablecoins will drive demand for large sovereign debt issuances (necessary due to the precarious fiscal imbalance). When financial scandals or broader crises emerge, conspiracy theories will consume the movement.
Foreign Entanglements
The administration does not shy away from foreign entanglements. Trump’s peculiarly obsequious summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska reignited doubts about their relationship. Many now fear Trump aims to impose a “territorial swap” granting Russia Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
For many in the MAGA world, Trump is making too many concessions to Europeans and Ukrainians on security guarantees.
Obsessed with reversing the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia’s lessons from applying shock therapy are clear. Its propaganda machine will exploit every possibility, spreading insinuations about secret agreements and foreign links to deepen American divisions. The poison of polarization will continue eroding the U.S. system.
The Author
Harold James, Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University, is the author of Seven Crashes: The Economic Crises That Shaped Globalization (Yale University Press, 2023).
Copyright
© Project Syndicate, 1995 – 2025
www.project-syndicate.org
