Introduction
Former President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose a new wave of tariffs, raising the effective average rate to approximately 23%, has caused significant disruption in international trade. This measure has affected global financial markets, increased uncertainty among investors, and forced companies across all sectors to rethink their strategies amid an increasingly volatile environment.
The Asymmetric and Global Trade War
Unlike previous trade wars focused on specific fronts, this confrontation has taken an asymmetric and global form. The United States has opted for a strategy of pressure on multiple fronts simultaneously, creating a 360-degree trade war. This not only weakens the position of its trading partners but also causes internal setbacks in its own economic growth.
According to the World Bank, such policies could subtract up to 1.4% from the US GDP, while countries highly exposed to the US market, like Mexico, could face growth reductions between 0.4% and 0.6%, depending on the elasticity of their exports.
The Emergence of Geopolitical Inflation
This new economic regime is marked by the appearance of a particular phenomenon: geopolitical inflation. Unlike post-pandemic inflation caused by demand excess or production bottlenecks, this new form of inflation is deliberately induced by political decisions.
It’s an artificial inflation caused by protective measures that increase import costs, affect internal prices, and weaken consumption without any real productivity increase.
Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Contrasts
On the macroeconomic level, trends such as growth deceleration, increased capital flow volatility, and balance of trade impact are observed. Mexico’s GDP, according to World Bank data, closed 2022 at 1.41 trillion dollars. However, growth in 2024 was only 1.2%, the lowest since 2020. For 2025, Mexico’s central bank estimates an expansion of just 0.6%, affected by private consumption, investment, and regulatory uncertainty.
On the microeconomic level, companies face a critical dilemma: continue optimizing based on costs or restructure for resilience. The tariff increase directly impacts small and medium-sized enterprises dependent on global supply chains, many of which already operated with tight margins.
Transitioning to a New Era of Business
For decades, efficiency and security were the pillars of executive thinking. However, the current reality demands a reconfiguration of priorities. Resilience, adaptability, and risk management have become the new axes of strategic decision-making.
It’s not just about redesigning production lines or seeking alternative suppliers; it’s about completely rethinking the operational model, including how risks are analyzed, technology is invested in, and talent is developed.
Mexico’s Opportunity in This Scenario
Mexico has an opportunity window. The nearshoring phenomenon could attract strategic industrial investments, especially if the country can offer modern technological infrastructure, legal certainty, and stable labor conditions.
However, capitalizing on this opportunity requires bold decisions. Economic zones, industrial corridors, and technological clusters must be accompanied by consistent public policies and active collaboration between the public, private, and academic sectors.
Mexico’s heavy dependence on US inputs, which account for more than half of its intermediate goods imports, also needs a clear strategy. Strengthening local suppliers, developing internal technical capabilities, and investing in prescriptive intelligence should become national priorities, backed by a long-term vision.
Recommendations for Executives and Boards
Develop internal macroeconomic and geopolitical analytical capabilities. Reacting to news is no longer enough; scenarios must be anticipated using analytical tools, economometric modeling, and continuous monitoring of critical variables like inflation, interest rates, tariff policies, and consumer behavior.
Strengthen operational intelligence around the supply chain. This includes mapping vulnerabilities, evaluating alternative logistics routes, and establishing strategic relationships with suppliers from different regions. Geographical diversification is no longer an advantage; it’s a necessity for operational continuity.
Expand the risk and finance committees’ perspective. These should adopt a more dynamic view, integrating geopolitical considerations into investment, merger, acquisition, and international expansion decisions.
Invest in adaptable talent. Critical skills today include strategic thinking, interdisciplinary analysis, and the ability to maneuver in uncertain environments. Leadership training should focus on resilience, creativity, and crisis management.
Treat prescriptive intelligence as strategic shielding. Organizations using models that not only analyze data but also propose courses of action will have greater capacity to anticipate disruptions, react agilely, and maintain a sustainable competitive advantage.
Macroeconomics shows aggregated trends; microeconomics speaks of individual decision behavior. In both levels, what’s at stake is the ability to make informed, timely, and sustainable decisions. Mexico, with all its challenges, has the conditions to build a new industrial narrative.
While mathematical models, prescriptive intelligence, and economometric simulations can bring order to uncertainty, they should not replace critical judgment or disguise technical neutrality as a power struggle. As Harvard economist Dani Rodrik advises, “The mistake is to think that the economy is an isolated science from politics and geostrategy.”
The recent induced inflation, artificial logistical disruptions, and punitive tariffs are not the natural result of multicausal chaos that only algorithms can decipher; they are often direct manifestations of hegemonic retreat.
The US is not only trying to contain China as a commercial competitor but also as an alternative economic model, challenging the rules it once promoted. As economic historian Adam Tooze noted, “What we’re seeing is not so much a trade war as a new form of economic Cold War.” In this sense, understanding the environment is not just about anticipating interest rates or commodity prices but recognizing that behind the economic noise lies an imperial logic that, in its quest to reorder the board, imposes a new narrative of conflict where interdependence once prevailed.
In summary, numbers help, but the key is not to lose sight of who decides the game, their purpose, and under what rules.
About the Authors
*Israel Reyes is an international expert in cybersecurity, operational technology (OT), and organizational resilience. With over 20 years of experience, he has led strategic responses to high-impact cyberattacks on Fortune 500 companies, critical infrastructures, and government agencies in America, Europe, and Asia.
Currently, he collaborates as a Guest Lecturer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), participating in executive education programs on crisis management, leadership in complex environments, and protection of strategic assets.
Passionate about golf and strategic conversations with executive leaders, Israel promotes a modern security vision that combines innovation, protection, sustainability, and leadership to face the challenges of a constantly disruptive world. Email: [email protected]
*Julio Salinas Lombard is a reference in corporate communication, institutional reputation, and crisis management. With over 30 years of experience, he has advised industrial groups and multinational companies on constructing strategic narratives, brand positioning, and reputational management in national and international contexts.
Currently, he leads external communication for a global industrial group from northern Mexico, aligning key messages with business objectives, organizational culture, and institutional values in high-complexity scenarios.
Passionate about writing, trend analysis, and strengthening corporate trust, Julio combines clarity, strategy, and humanist vision to transform communication into a growth and leadership engine. Email: [email protected]
