Mexico’s Regressive Policy Changes and Global Uncertainty
The first half of 2025, which felt like a full decade, concludes today with a significant loss: certainty. In Mexico, this period witnessed the implementation of some of the most regressive policy changes in recent memory, effectively rolling back decades of democratic and institutional progress.
Key Policy Changes in Mexico
- Judicial Reforms: The legal changes in the judiciary resulted in a poorly managed and disregarded election process, paving the way for the dismantling of the National Electoral Institute.
- Energy Reform: The 2013 energy reform, which was the last chance to prevent Pemex from becoming the thinnest thread in Mexico’s economy, was effectively scrapped.
- Autonomous Bodies’ Disappearance: Over the past six months, numerous autonomous bodies that had ensured transparency in public and private expenditure were dissolved, including the Transparency Institute and the National Council for Evaluation of Social Development Policy.
These changes have militarized, controlled, and limited rights, contributing to the growing uncertainty.
Global Uncertainty: The Return of Donald Trump
The most significant event in the first half of 2025, which has created a sense of living through a decade in six months, is Donald Trump’s return to the White House. His inauguration on January 20 marked the beginning of a process to disrupt expectations, with his earlier threats setting the stage.
While U.S. financial markets are at historical highs, they serve more as a warning than an indicator of the success of Trump’s public policies.
Trump’s Global Impact
It is challenging to determine which of Trump’s decisions will have the most detrimental global effects, as their impacts unfold at varying paces. However, his trade policy’s consequences have been the most rapid.
The losses from this first half of 2025 will become apparent starting in the second half of the year and beyond, as we anticipate the repercussions of Trump’s policies this week.
- Fiscal Package: The deadline for Trump’s fiscal package approval in Congress is approaching this Friday.
- Trade Negotiations: Trump broke off trade negotiations with Canada over the weekend, signaling that the USMCA is a dead-end agreement, as it first exposed the regional accord’s rupture among three parties.
- Reciprocal Tariff Policy: By July 9, Trump must define his reciprocal tariff policy’s future, but there is still no clarity on its direction.
Today, both our country and the world are more uncertain than they were six months ago. With no positive outlook on ongoing processes, uncertainty continues to fester.
