Introduction to the Comité de Fechado de Ciclos de la Economía Mexicana (CFCEM)
The Comité de Fechado de Ciclos de la Economía Mexicana (CFCEM), supported by the Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF), has concluded that there are insufficient elements to definitively confirm or deny a new economic recession in Mexico. The committee, an independent technical body, aims to identify the phases of economic expansion and recession in Mexico without speculating on causes or endorsing specific economic policies.
The CFCEM’s Role and Methodology
Established in February 2021, the CFCEM has identified six recessions and five complete economic cycles from 1980 to 2020. The committee considers three criteria when determining economic phases: diffusion (widespread trend across most economic activities), duration (sustained direction over a significant period), and profundity (substantial change in economic activity level).
Historical Recessions in Mexico
- December 1994 recession: 6 months
- External debt crisis in December 1981: 19 months
- Currency crisis in September 1985 (following an earthquake): 15 months
- Dot-com crisis in October 2000: 16 months
- Covid-19 pandemic recession (from June 2019): 12 months
- 2008 US financial crisis (impact on Mexico): 11 months
Current Economic Situation in Mexico
Recent discussions have suggested that Mexico might be entering or is already in a technical recession, given the 0.6% contraction in Q4 2024 and a 0.2% growth in Q1 2025. Secretary of Finance, Edgar Amador, has dismissed recession claims, stating that the economy remains in expansion.
Low Growth and Desacelerating Economy
Despite no formal economic crisis, Mexico has experienced the lowest growth rates (below 1% annually) over the past six years, with the current period marked by noticeable economic desaceleraton.
CFCEM’s Future Outlook
As the CFCEM continues monitoring economic indicators, it will announce its determinations regarding Mexico’s economic phase transition from expansion to recession when sufficient data is available.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: Is Mexico in a recession? A: The CFCEM has not confirmed or denied a new economic recession in Mexico due to insufficient evidence.
- Q: What criteria does the CFCEM use to determine economic phases? A: The committee considers diffusion, duration, and profundity of economic trends.
- Q: What are some recent recessions in Mexico? A: Recent recessions include the Covid-19 pandemic (12 months), the 2008 US financial crisis impact (11 months), and others listed above.
- Q: What is the current economic situation in Mexico? A: There’s uncertainty around a potential recession, with recent GDP contractions and growth, but no formal crisis.
- Q: How does the CFCEM communicate its findings? A: The committee will announce its determinations once it has sufficient data on economic indicators.
