Introduction to the 2026 Economic Package and its Significance
The 2026 Economic Package outlines key elements that will shape the second year of President Sheinbaum’s administration. Among its components are the Criterios Generales de Política Económica (CGPE), which provide estimations on major macroeconomic indicators. These projections, issued by the Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP), cover aspects such as economic growth, public debt, oil prices, interest rates, exchange rates, and more.
Economic Growth Projections: A Detailed Look
Economic growth estimations often draw attention due to their influence on other factors like per capita income, domestic consumption, tax revenue, and job creation. The CGPE 2025 projected a growth of 2% to 3% for 2025. However, the Pre-Criterios Generales de Política Económica (PGPE) 2026 lowered this estimate. Following the release of CGPE 2026, there have been three downward adjustments to the expected growth rate, with SHCP now estimating 0.5% to 1.5% for 2025. Despite these revisions, the figure remains above estimates from organizations such as the OECD (0.4%), Citibanamex (0.4%), and the Fondo Monetario Internacional (0.2%).
Public Debt: An In-depth Analysis
Another crucial variable to examine is public debt, including Requerimientos Financieros del Sector Público (RFSP) and the historical RFSP balance. The 2025 RFSP was initially set at 3.9% of GDP, decreasing to 3.2% for 2026 and further to 2.9% from 2027 through 2030. The recently presented CGPE, however, indicates that the approved 2025 debt level will not be met, nor will subsequent years’ intended levels. The 2025 debt estimation has been revised to 4.3% of GDP, while the 2026 estimation stands at 4.1% (a 0.9 percentage point difference from the initial plan). This adjustment results in a historical RFSP balance exceeding the original 2025 estimate (51.4%) at 52.3%, setting a new historical maximum that will persist until 2031.
Investment and Social Programs: A Balancing Act
The planned investment for 2026 amounts to 1.25 trillion pesos, a real increase of 20.1%. Seventy-six point seven percent of this investment targets physical infrastructure, with resources growing by 10% in real terms. For 2026, prioritized investment projects are estimated to account for 536.8 billion pesos. While investment typically fuels economic growth, the government’s interest in promoting nearshoring—dependent on infrastructure investments like ports, airports, highways, and energy facilities to attract investors—could potentially boost the economy.
However, the Proyecto de Presupuesto de Egresos de la Federación (PPEF) for 2026 reveals that the government prioritizes investments in Pemex and passenger trains. The Tren Maya will continue to receive the largest budget among over nine railway projects, some inherited from previous administrations and others initiated during this term.
Social Programs: A Significant Increase in Funding
The proposed budget for social programs is 14.1% higher than the 2025 allocation in real terms, totaling 987.16 billion pesos (2.5% of GDP and 9.7% of the total budget). Among prioritized programs are real annual increases in the Pension for the Well-being of Adult Women (267%), Salud Casa por Casa (93.3%), and the Rita Cetina Scholarship (58.6%), all implemented by President Sheinbaum in 2025.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the main components of the 2026 Economic Package? The package includes the Criterios Generales de Política Económica (CGPE), which provide estimations on macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, public debt, oil prices, interest rates, and exchange rates.
- How have economic growth projections changed? There have been three downward adjustments to the expected growth rate, with SHCP now estimating 0.5% to 1.5% for 2025, despite remaining above estimates from international organizations.
- What adjustments have been made to public debt estimations? The approved 2025 debt level will not be met, nor will subsequent years’ intended levels. The 2025 debt estimation has been revised to 4.3% of GDP, while the 2026 estimation stands at 4.1%.
- How does the government plan to address infrastructure needs for nearshoring? The government intends to invest in ports, airports, highways, and energy infrastructure to attract investors.
- Which social programs have seen significant budget increases? Programs such as the Pension for the Well-being of Adult Women, Salud Casa por Casa, and Rita Cetina Scholarship have experienced real annual increases in their budgets.
