Introduction
It’s understandable why Donald Trump evokes strong dislike among much of Mexico’s and the world’s intellectual community. He is arrogant, brash, often says nonsensical things, and lacks the gravitas of past heads of state. His demeanor incites disgust, and many of his policies—especially those related to immigration and the actions of ICE—deserve strong condemnation. However, amidst the chaos and fiery declarations, it’s worthwhile to place Trump’s actions within the current geopolitical context and understand where they might lead us.
The End of an Era: A Liberal International Order
Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, the world experienced three decades of a liberal international order. Multilateralism flourished, the Responsibility to Protect doctrine emerged, and the International Criminal Court was established. The world moved towards clear rules with balances and counterbalances.
- This order produced public goods that led to an era of significant growth.
- The world enjoyed open maritime routes, enabling exponential growth in international trade.
- A sophisticated financial system financed impressive technologies and fueled consumption for millions.
- Among states, security collective agreements and dispute resolution frameworks existed.
This order was only possible due to the United States’ hegemony. Whether it was out of benevolence or self-interest, the world functioned as such because the United States wanted it that way. Mark Carney, Canada’s Prime Minister, is correct when he states that this order was “partially false,” operating through selective application of norms.
Although it may seem that this order is crumbling before our eyes, it’s a process that takes time and was inevitable from a realist perspective on international relations.
A Unique Period in History
These 30 years should be understood as an exception rather than a norm. It was an extraordinary period made possible only by the United States’ cultural, economic, and military hegemony.
However, today that world no longer exists. Not because of Trump or Obama—though Syria and Crimea could be seen as the beginning of the end—but due to an inevitable historical process driven by China’s rise, leading us into a “Thucydides Trap” scenario.
The Thucydides Trap: A Structural Danger
This concept, developed by Graham Allison, describes the structural danger when an emerging power threatens to displace a dominant one. Named after Thucydides, who described the inevitability of the Peloponnesian War due to Athens’ rise and Sparta’s reaction, Allison notes that in 16 cases over 500 years where an emerging power challenged a dominant one, 12 resulted in war.
This is the context for understanding Trump’s actions. Tariffs aim to limit China’s trade surpluses. Restrictions on microprocessors intend to slow down China’s advance in AI. Capturing Maduro deprives China of energy resources and a Latin American ally. Greenland is part of the race for critical minerals and access to Arctic routes.
Trump’s bravado has real consequences. His erratic behavior and threats erode alliances and divide nations. Yet, his actions must be understood from the perspective of a threatened hegemonic power.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: Why is there such strong dislike for Donald Trump among intellectuals? A: Trump is seen as arrogant, brash, and lacking the gravitas of past heads of state. His demeanor incites disgust, and many of his policies, especially immigration-related ones, deserve strong condemnation.
- Q: What was the nature of the international order for the past 30 years? A: Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, the world experienced a liberal international order characterized by multilateralism, clear rules, and balances. This period was made possible by the United States’ hegemony.
- Q: Why is this order considered “partially false”? A: The order was selectively enforced, with powerful states ignoring norms when it suited them. Trade rules were subjective, and international law functioned with “variable rigor” depending on the identity of those accused or victimized.
- Q: What is the Thucydides Trap? A: This concept describes the structural danger when an emerging power threatens to displace a dominant one, as in the historical case of Athens and Sparta.
- Q: How do Trump’s actions fit into this geopolitical context? A: Trump’s tariffs, restrictions on microprocessors, and geopolitical maneuvers can be seen as attempts to limit China’s growing influence and secure American interests amidst a shifting global power dynamic.
