The Emergence of a Selective and Deliberate Trade Policy
At first glance, it might seem that Donald Trump’s trade decisions—tariffs, threats, false starts, and sudden policy shifts—are mere occurrences without a clear strategy. However, upon closer examination, a pattern emerges: the United States has begun to manage access to its market selectively and deliberately, turning it into a strategic tool. Instead of offering this access as part of a global vision for free trade, as it did for decades, the US now grants it as a privilege to those who align with Washington’s broader agenda.
Visualizing the Trade Policy as Concentric Circles
Imagine the US trade policy as a system of concentric circles. At the center are countries closest to and most useful for US interests. As one moves outward, countries are positioned based on their degree of openness, alignment, or rivalry. The further a country is from the center, the more exposed it becomes to tariffs, regulatory restrictions, inspections, threats, and trade pressures.
The Mercantilist Agenda
This concentric circle model is highly beneficial for Donald Trump’s mercantilist and transactional agenda. Under his vision, the US market is the country’s most valuable negotiating asset, and it must be managed accordingly. Those wishing to sell to the US are expected to cooperate with Washington on migration policy, combating fentanyl, competing with China, and pursuing energy interests. Otherwise, access to the US economy will be in doubt.
Countries in Different Circles
- First Circle: Countries closest to the center, such as the UK or Vietnam, have accepted this dynamic and begun negotiating agreements to secure a place in the innermost circle.
- Second Circle: Countries with significant commercial relations but no free trade agreement (FTA) with the US, like the EU and Japan, fall into this category. There is trade, investments, and geopolitical convergence, but also frequent friction.
- Third Circle: Economies like Brazil or South Africa, which seek deeper integration into global trade but face erratic treatment from Washington. They are praised as new partners one moment and publicly humiliated the next, threatened with sanctions, or criticized for their activism in regional forums like the BRICS.
- Fourth Circle: Strategic rivals, such as China, Russia, and Iran, are relegated to the outermost circle. Trade measures against them serve as geopolitical pressure tools: export controls on semiconductors, restrictions on tech companies, and campaigns to reduce dependence on their products.
Mexico’s Position
In this framework, Mexico appears to be in the first circle due to the USMCA’s solid foundation for bilateral relations. However, being in the center does not guarantee immunity. Mexico must continually address issues deemed important by Washington—security, energy, migration, automotive industry, and relations with China—to maintain its status and position. The successful review of the USMCA and Mexico’s progress in all areas must be recognized and rewarded.
Conclusion
Understanding the US trade policy through this lens helps anticipate risks, devise strategies, and avoid naive interpretations. Trump’s approach essentially proposes a reorganization of international trade based on loyalties rather than rules, where access to the world’s largest market is earned through political alignment rather than economic efficiency.
