Background and Key Players
Mexico is less than four months away from colliding with the United States over an aviation dispute. This conflict has significant implications for Mexican airlines, government-managed airports (AIFA and AICM), aerial exports and imports, employment, and indirect effects on negotiations between the two countries regarding non-tariff barriers and potential review of the USMCA.
Immediate Consequences
The disagreement will result in immediate consequences, including the suspension of two existing routes from AIFA starting November 7 and the cancellation of 11 planned routes from AIFA and AICM to the US, taking effect immediately.
The Stakes
If no agreement is reached within four months, the situation could worsen drastically. The US will enforce a ban on Mexican airlines’ combined passenger and cargo transportation permits between AICM and the US, dealing a significant blow to Mexican aviation.
The Accusation
On October 28, 2025, the US Department of Transportation, led by Sean Duffy, announced the reduction of 13 existing or newly created routes between Mexico and the US, operated from AIFA and AICM. Duffy emphasized the severity of the punishment, stating that it will be applied “until Mexico stops playing and complies.”
The US accuses Mexico of violating the 2015 bilateral aviation agreement and maintaining persistently anticompetitive behavior. The Department of Transportation claims that Mexico has canceled or frozen US airline flights for three years, breaching the agreement.
Origins of the Dispute
This disagreement originated during former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration. Through a decree, López Obrador moved all cargo operations from AICM to AIFA and altered flight schedules (slots) at the capital’s airport. Since then, the lopezobradorista government has rejected US accusations and defended its changes based on national sovereignty.
Mexico’s Perspective
Under the current administration, President Claudia Sheinbaum has maintained a similar stance. She has called the US actions against Mexico unjustified and unilateral. On October 29, Sheinbaum responded firmly to the US government:
- Disagreement with Sanctions: She reiterated her disapproval of the US Department of Transportation’s decision to cancel 13 existing and new routes, effective November 7.
- Implied Commercial Interests: She hinted at potential commercial interests behind the US sanctions in aviation matters.
- Diplomatic Efforts: She instructed the Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Juan Ramón de la Fuente, to contact US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and request a meeting with Sean Duffy to discuss the unilateral actions.
Cargo Operations at AIFA
According to AIFA Director General Isidoro Pastor Alemán, 17 US cargo airlines operate at AIFA: Cargojet, Amerijet, UPS, National Air Cargo Group, Atlas Air Inc., FedEx, Kalitta Air, McNeely Charter, Berry Aviation, Sky Lease Cargo, Western Global, USA Jet, Lynden Air Cargo, Everest Air Cargo, Kallita Charters, Global Crossing Airlines, and IFL Group. In 2023, they handled 42,236 tons of cargo; in 2024, the figure rose to 125,407 tons; and in 2025, they have already transported 92,717 tons, indicating growing cargo activity at AIFA.
What’s Next
The disagreement between the US and Mexico has polarized positions from both governments. Time is short to overcome differences, and President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration must work diligently to uphold past decisions and prevent substantial damage to the economy, aviation industry, tourism, and national exports and imports.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the dispute about? The US accuses Mexico of anticompetitive practices in aviation, while Mexico denies these claims and defends its changes based on national sovereignty.
- What are the immediate consequences? The US will suspend two existing routes and cancel 11 planned routes from AIFA and AICM to the US, affecting Mexican airlines and cargo operations.
- What could happen in four months if no agreement is reached? The US will enforce a ban on Mexican airlines’ combined passenger and cargo transportation permits between AICM and the US, severely impacting Mexican aviation.
- What is Mexico’s response? President Claudia Sheinbaum has called the US actions unjustified and unilateral, instructing diplomatic efforts to discuss the sanctions.
