Introduction
Eight years after President Donald Trump abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and unilaterally disarmed the US in the trade war he was about to launch against China, his second term’s Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, aims to renegotiate the TPP and use it to form a united front against the Chinese.
Bessent’s Plan and Its Origins
According to Chris Anstey (Bloomberg), Bessent has a master plan to isolate China, mirroring the commercial strategy of the Obama administration. The idea was to use the TPP to create a coalition of Pacific Rim nations increasingly linked to the US and less inclined towards China.
However, it might be too late to revive Obama’s strategy. The TPP has evolved into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, and none of its members would consider Trump a credible or trustworthy interlocutor. Bessent intends to collaborate with Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India, but these countries would be wise not to grant Trump significant concessions. Mexico and Canada already renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement during Trump’s first term, placing them among his early targets for retaliatory actions.
Miscommunication and Lack of Policy
Bessent may be mistaken or lying when suggesting he voices the administration’s opinion, as no one is authorized to speak on Trump’s behalf. His decisions change rapidly based on his “instincts” and television exposure. Even if Trump instinctively agrees with a proposal from Bessent, he may retract his promise if another advisor contradicts him. This unpredictability is a hallmark of the Trump administration.
Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers acknowledges this reality: “If I were in the government, my only concern would be what the president says… The president has the right to have advisors who believe in his policies… People are entitled to follow their conscience.”
However, this logic is futile in the face of a policy vacuum. A policy requires clear objectives, a working team, modeling, and analysis of potential scenarios during implementation. Instead, the Trump administration is characterized by an ignorant figure surrounded by sycophants, spouting nonsense on live television.
Comparing Trump to Ronald Reagan
Unlike Trump, Ronald Reagan had a compelling governing philosophy reflecting his immense faith in the American people and distrust of Democratic policies, programs, and bureaucracies built since 1933. Reagan, an actor, also had great self-confidence in his ability to memorize and perform the presidential script.
However, Reagan recognized his role as president and relied on a network of professionals to lead effectively. When this confidence was warranted, results were positive. But when it wasn’t—as in the Iran Contra affair—the outcome was disastrous.
The Trump White House lacks editors, only having public relations personnel. Trump utters something, and an advisor quickly emerges to declare, “You see it now! This was always the plan!” But these courtiers fail to agree among themselves. Sometimes Peter Navarro, other times Elon Musk, or perhaps Howard Lutnick, Stephen Miran (Council of Economic Advisors), or Kevin Hassett (National Economic Council) appear to be the voice. Yet, these factions agree on little, and ultimately, Trump trusts none of them.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main issue with Trump’s second term? The primary concern is the lack of clear policies and processes, with decisions driven by Trump’s instincts rather than strategic planning.
- What is Bessent’s plan? Bessent aims to renegotiate the TPP and use it to form a united front against China, mirroring Obama’s strategy of creating a coalition of Pacific Rim nations linked to the US.
- Why might Bessent’s plan be ineffective? The TPP has evolved, and member nations may not trust Trump. Additionally, Mexico and Canada have already renegotiated trade agreements with the US during Trump’s first term.
- How does Trump’s administration compare to Ronald Reagan’s? While Reagan had a compelling governing philosophy and relied on professionals, the Trump administration lacks both strategic planning and trustworthy advisors.
Recommendations for the US Government
If the Republican Party hadn’t made flattery its guiding principle, House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune would set an ultimatum for Trump: appoint qualified regents to handle domestic and foreign policy, limiting his role to delivering written speeches crafted by them. Otherwise, some Republican congressmen would align with Democrats, forcing Trump to deal with a Democrat-led Congress under Representative Hakeem Jeffries and Senator Chuck Schumer.
These are the only viable options, as there’s no trust in Trump’s “policy formulation process.” If taken seriously, Trump would concede. He has already stopped insulting Canada since the new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney challenged him. For domestic policy, I would vote for Bessent not because I believe he’d perform well but because he might cause less damage than others genuinely willing to work for such a man.
However, none of this will happen. Consequently, the US and the world face a serious problem.
About the Author
J. Bradford DeLong, former US Treasury Department Under Secretary, is an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley and author of “Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century” (Basic Books, 2022).
Translation: Esteban Flamini
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 1995 – 2025
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