Background on Key Figures and Relevance
Nicolás Maduro, the current president of Venezuela, has shown resilience in refusing to step down and transfer power to Edmundo González, the democratically recognized winner of the July 2024 elections. González secured the majority of votes across all states and 90% of the 335 municipalities, as acknowledged by democratic nations.
Maduro’s defiance has led to the failure of Plan A, which aimed for a smooth transition. His resistance resulted in being captured after ignoring an ultimatum, highlighting the deep institutional decay complicating post-Chavista Venezuela’s scenarios.
Military Establishment’s Role
The military and security establishment has effectively executed a coup during the first weekend of 2025, backing Delcy Rodríguez’s appointment as interim president. The situation now hinges on whether the Bolivarian bases will reflect popular support for the regime.
Ongoing Challenges
- The chavista status quo remains intact, with Maduro supported by the army.
- “Decreto de conmoción” allows for persecution of those backing US intervention.
- The military high command holds the key to Venezuela’s short-term future.
- Amnesty, exile, or impunity for chavista leaders accused of crimes against humanity, corruption, and electoral fraud are potential paths forward.
International Community’s Role
The international community, particularly Mexico leading a coalition with Colombia, Brazil, and Spain, will play a crucial role in constructing a peaceful transition. This coalition may offer asylum to dissidents.
Legal and Political Implications
Maduro and his wife face legal proceedings, but other regime figures remain in power alongside the military high command. Restoring democracy in Venezuela will not happen quickly, especially if the persecution of the “Cartel of the Sun” and “Tren de Aragua” is pursued to its extremes.
The interim president must decide how to confront non-state actors (ideological or criminal) who have exploited institutional weaknesses and limited state capacity to establish a constitutional and democratic political order.
Side Effects
Fortaleza:
José Ramón Amieva was unanimously elected as the new president of the Federal Court of Administrative Justice. His appointment was facilitated by outgoing president Guillermo Valls and magistrate Julián Alfonso Olivas Ugalde. Amieva, former head of the Capital Government, stated he would only exercise administrative representation, emphasizing equality among colleagues.
Colaterales:
In these dark hours, Caracas is gripped by chaos. At the time of this edition’s closure, 14 journalists and media workers had been detained near the National Assembly; eleven from international media outlets and one from national media.
