Introduction
The official rainy season in Mexico has begun, with the Pacific basin expected to see the first cyclones, followed by the Atlantic. Fabián Vázquez Romaña, General Coordinator of Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN), has announced that the number of tropical storms predicted for this season will be slightly above the climatological average due to the neutral phase of El Niño, which is expected to persist throughout most of the hurricane season.
Months with Heaviest Rainfall
According to Mexico’s National Water Commission (CONAGUA), the months of May through June will see slightly above-average rainfall nationwide. However, September and October are when more cyclones are expected to develop in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins.
States Most Affected by Hurricanes
In the Pacific, 16 to 20 cyclones are anticipated, with names assigned, while the Atlantic basin is expected to have 13 to 17 atmospheric events, starting from June 1st.
States Most Impacted by Cyclones:
- Baja California Sur
- Sinaloa
- Quintana Roo
- Veracruz
- Tamaulipas
- Yucatán
Of the Pacific cyclones predicted, 8 to 9 are expected to be tropical storms; 4 to 5, hurricanes of categories 1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale; and 4 to 6, hurricanes classified as categories 3, 4, or 5.
In the Atlantic, 7 to 9 tropical storms are forecasted, along with 3 to 4 hurricanes of categories 1 or 2 and the same number of hurricanes classified as categories 3, 4, or 5.
Historically, three cyclones impact Mexican coasts in the Pacific, while two enter the Atlantic. Both basins conclude their seasons on November 30th.
Key Questions and Answers
- When does the rainy season officially start in Mexico? The official rainy season in Mexico began on May 15th.
- What is the expected number of tropical storms this season? The predicted number of tropical storms is slightly above the climatological average, due to the neutral phase of El Niño.
- Which months will see the heaviest rainfall? May through June and September through October are expected to have above-average rainfall.
- Which states are most likely to be affected by cyclones? Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Quintana Roo, Veracruz, Tamaulipas, and Yucatán are the most impacted states.
- How many cyclones are expected in each basin? In the Pacific, 16 to 20 cyclones are anticipated; in the Atlantic, 13 to 17 atmospheric events are expected.
