Introduction
One year into Donald Trump’s presidency, the relationship between the United States and Mexico in terms of security has been marked by “forced cooperation,” uncertainty, and the risk of unilateral decisions. This situation has led Mexico to align its security strategy with U.S. demands, according to experts.
U.S. Pressure and Mexico’s Response
Armando Vargas, coordinator of Mexico’s Security Evaluation Program, explained that Mexico shifted towards a crime-weakening policy based on intelligence, mass arrests, and seizures—especially of fentanyl—due to Trump’s pressures. Trump has used security as a pretext for expanding and intervening in hemispheric affairs.
Vargas believes that Mexico’s highlighted achievements, such as thousands of arrests and strikes against criminal structures, are part of a “punitive populism” strategy to show the U.S. that Mexico is fulfilling its part in curbing drug trafficking and violence, thus containing threats like potential tariffs.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s Role
Vargas emphasized that Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico City’s mayor, should take the initiative to establish a collaborative security policy with the U.S., being involved in all decisions involving military intervention on Mexican soil. The main concern should be avoiding any U.S. intervention at all costs.
Unpredictable Relationship
Alma Eunice Rendón Cárdenas, former Executive Deputy Secretary of Mexico’s National Public Security System, described the relationship with Trump as complex and unpredictable.
“He’s a person you can’t trust, and you have to negotiate everything constantly; you can never feel secure,” she said, considering this the main disadvantage for Mexico. She also warned that Trump’s rhetoric has escalated towards more aggressive stances, especially after designating Mexican cartels as terrorists and using terms suggesting possible actions in Mexican territory.
Key Actions and Timeline
- February 2025: The U.S. formally designates six Mexican cartels as terrorists.
- February 2025: U.S. media report drone flights over Mexican territory. Mexico sends 29 high-profile narcos to the U.S. to avoid tariffs.
- March 2025: Mexico and the U.S. review their security agreement to update mechanisms for combating drug and arms trafficking.
- April 2025: Mexico rejects any interpretation allowing foreign intervention and announces legal adjustments to strengthen sovereignty defense.
- August 2025: Mexico sends another batch of 26 high-profile criminals to the U.S.
- September 2025: Both countries deepen cooperation in financial intelligence and extraditions.
- January 2026: Donald Trump announces land-based attacks against drug cartels.
- January 2026: Claudia Sheinbaum holds a call with Trump discussing security and results.
- January 2026: The U.S. FAA issues an alert about potential military operations; Sheinbaum denies overflights.
- January 2026: Sheinbaum clarifies that a U.S. military plane landing in Mexico is for approved training since October 2025.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What has characterized the U.S.-Mexico security relationship under Trump? A: It has been marked by “forced cooperation,” uncertainty, and the risk of unilateral decisions, aligning Mexico’s security strategy with U.S. demands.
- Q: How has Mexico responded to U.S. pressure? A: Mexico shifted towards a crime-weakening policy based on intelligence, mass arrests, and seizures—especially of fentanyl—due to Trump’s pressures.
- Q: What is the role of Claudia Sheinbaum in this context? A: Armando Vargas suggests that Sheinbaum should take the initiative to establish a collaborative security policy with the U.S., being involved in all decisions involving military intervention on Mexican soil.
- Q: How would Rendón Cárdenas describe the relationship with Trump? A: She describes it as complex and unpredictable, emphasizing the need for constant negotiation due to lack of trust.
- Q: What are some key actions and timeline events related to U.S.-Mexico security under Trump? A: These include designating Mexican cartels as terrorists, sending high-profile narcos to the U.S., reviewing security agreements, and deepening cooperation in financial intelligence and extraditions.
