Overview of the Weather Phenomenon
According to Mexico’s National Weather Service (SMN), Front 8, along with its associated cold air mass, will continue moving across the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, October 20. This will result in a drop in temperatures, strong winds, and heavy to intense rainfall across several states in the east and southeast of the country.
Heavy Rainfall in Southeast
The SMN’s Extended Forecast (96 hours) predicts very strong to locally intense rainfall (75-150 mm) in Veracruz regions like Los Tuxtlas and Olmeca, as well as Chiapas areas such as Selva, Fronteriza, and Soconusco. Fuertes to very fuertes rainfall (50-75 mm) are expected in Oaxaca’s Papaloapan, Istmo, and Sierra Norte regions, along with Tabasco’s Sierra and Chontalpa areas.
- Puebla, Guerrero, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo will experience scattered showers with strong rains.
- Central Mexico, including the capital city, will have isolated and short-duration rainfall.
The SMN warns that these precipitations may be accompanied by thunderstorms, hail, and potential landslides or flooding in low-lying areas. They advise taking extra precautions.
Strong Winds and Elevated Waves
The cold front and associated cold air mass will cause north winds with speeds of 55 to 70 km/h in the Isthmus and Tehuantepec Gulf, as well as 35 to 50 km/h winds along Veracruz, Campeche, and Yucatán coasts.
Oaxaca and Chiapas coasts will see waves 1.5 to 2.5 meters high, so maritime navigation should exercise caution.
Temperature Drop and Temperature Contrasts
Front 8’s cold air mass will bring a drop in temperatures across the east of the country.
- Minimum temperatures will range from 0 to 5 °C in mountainous areas of Sonora, Zacatecas, Michoacán, Hidalgo, Estado de México, Tlaxcala, Puebla, and Veracruz during the early morning of Tuesday.
- Chihuahua, Durango, and Baja California’s mountainous regions may experience temperatures as low as -5 °C.
In contrast, the north and Yucatán Peninsula will maintain maximum temperatures between 35 to 40 °C, while central and western Mexico will see temperatures between 30 to 35 °C.
Conditions in the Rest of the Country
A low-pressure system over Mexico’s interior and the influx of moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico will cause scattered showers in northern, western, and central states. Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán will be particularly affected.
Although Front 8 will gradually move eastward during Monday night, the SMN notes that atmospheric instability will persist in the south and southeast.
SMN Recommendations
The SMN urges the public to stay informed through official alerts, as heavy rains and strong winds could lead to fallen trees, flooding, and disruptions in rural roads.
- Avoid crossing flooded rivers or areas and seek shelter during thunderstorms.
