According to the National Weather Service’s forecast, significant rainfall is expected in southeastern Mexico, strong winds are anticipated in the Isthmus region, and a contrasting climate is expected across various parts of the country as front 21 approaches.
Heavy and Very Heavy Rainfall
On Saturday, rain is expected from the west to the southeast across Mexico’s territory. The most significant rainfall is forecast in:
- Quintana Roo (north): very heavy rainfall (50 to 75 mm).
- Chiapas (east), Campeche (north and east), and Yucatan: heavy rainfall.
- Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Puebla, Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Tabasco: scattered showers.
- CDMX, Estado de México, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Guanajuato, and Morelos: isolated showers.
The National Weather Service (SMN) warns that heavy rainfall could lead to landslides, waterlogging, flooding, and increased river and stream levels, especially in the southeast.
North Winds and Contrasting Weather
North winds will reach speeds of 50 to 70 km/h in the Isthmus and Tehuantepec (Oaxaca and Chiapas). Meanwhile, as front 21 approaches the northeast, gusts of 40 to 60 km/h are expected in:
- Chihuahua
- Coahuila
- Nuevo León
- Tamaulipas
The Pacific coast will maintain a warm to hot climate, with maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 degrees Celsius in:
- Sinaloa
- Nayarit
- Jalisco
- Colima
- Michoacan
- Guerrero
- Oaxaca
- Chiapas
During Saturday morning, the weather in the northern and central mountainous regions will be very cold:
- Chihuahua and Durango: minimum temperatures of -10 to -5 degrees Celsius.
- Baja California, Sonora, Estado de México, Tlaxcala, and Puebla: minimum temperatures of -5 to 0 degrees Celsius.
- Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacan, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Oaxaca: minimum temperatures of 0 to 5 degrees Celsius.
Climate in the Valley of Mexico
For Saturday, expect:
- Partly cloudy skies
- Cool mornings and warm afternoons
- Isolated showers in the late afternoon
- North winds with gusts up to 40 km/h
Temperatures:
- CDMX: low of 9 to 11 degrees Celsius; high of 23 to 25 degrees Celsius.
- Toluca: low of 2 to 4 degrees Celsius; high of 21 to 23 degrees Celsius.
The impact of front 21 intensifies on Sunday:
Front 21 will rapidly move towards the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, enhancing rainfall and a general drop in temperature.
More Intense Rainfall on Sunday
Chiapas (north and east): intense rainfall (75 to 150 mm).
- Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Quintana Roo: heavy to very heavy rainfall.
- Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatan, and the Bajio: scattered showers.
Stronger “Norte” event:
Isthmus and Tehuantepec: gusts of 70 to 90 km/h.
- Tamaulipas: gusts of 50 to 70 km/h.
- Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo: gusts of 40 to 60 km/h.
Elevated Waves:
Tehuantepec: 2.5 to 3.5 meters
Tamaulipas coast: 2.0 to 3.0 meters
Veracruz, Tabasco, and Yucatan Peninsula coasts: 1.0 to 2.0 meters
Sunday Temperatures
Although the country will predominantly experience warm conditions on Saturday, a drop in temperature is expected across the north, northeast, east, and central highlands on Sunday due to front 21.
Maximums: 35 to 40 degrees Celsius in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Campeche, and Yucatan.
Minimums: -10 to -5 degrees Celsius in the mountainous regions of Chihuahua and Durango; -5 to 0 degrees Celsius in Baja California, Sonora, Estado de México, Tlaxcala, and Puebla.
Outlook for the Start of the Week
Monday: Front 21 will continue to bring heavy rainfall in Veracruz, Puebla, and Chiapas, along with the “Norte” event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Tuesday: The front will stall over the Caribbean, but a low-pressure system will maintain rainfall in the northeast, east, southeast, and Yucatan Peninsula.
