Heavy Rains and Possible Tropical Cyclone to Impact Mexico This Weekend

Web Editor

October 4, 2025

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Overview of the Weather Systems Affecting Mexico

According to Mexico’s National Weather Service (SMN), the country will be affected by various systems this weekend, maintaining unstable conditions, especially in the south, southeast, and western regions.

Key weather systems include:

  • A low-pressure area with a high likelihood of developing into a tropical cyclone off the coasts of Michoacán and Colima.
  • Cold front number 5 over northern Mexico.
  • Low-pressure channels in the center and east.
  • Monsoon trough in the Pacific South.

Saturday, October 4 Weather Outlook

The low-pressure system near the Pacific will slowly move along the coasts of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, causing very heavy to locally intense rainfall, strong winds up to 80 km/h, and waves of 2.5 to 3.5 meters.

In the southeast, low-pressure channels and the monsoon trough will maintain very heavy rainfall in Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, Campeche, and Yucatán. Meanwhile, the central part of the country is expected to see showers and thunderstorms, including Mexico City, the State of Mexico, and Morelos.

The atmosphere will remain hot in the northwest, with maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 °C in Sonora, Sinaloa, Nayarit, and Baja California Sur. In the mountainous areas of central and northern states like Durango, Zacatecas, Tlaxcala, and Puebla, minimum temperatures are expected to drop to 0 to 5 °C overnight on Sunday.

Sunday, October 5 Weather Outlook

The low-pressure area with cyclone potential will continue to generate intense rainfall in Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, and Guerrero, along with winds up to 90 km/h and waves of up to 5 meters along the central Pacific coast.

In the southeast, the arrival of tropical wave number 36 will reinforce very heavy rainfall in Chiapas, Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. The Yucatan Peninsula is expected to see intense rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms.

Cold front number 5 will move across northern and northwestern Mexico, causing strong winds and isolated rainfall in Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Coahuila, as well as a slight drop in temperature in the region.

Areas of Focus

The SMN warns that the heaviest rains could lead to river overflows, flooding, and landslides in low-lying areas of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, Michoacán, and Guerrero. Authorities advise residents to take extra precautions and stay updated through the Sistema Nacional de Protección Civil.

Coastal residents of central Pacific are urged to stay informed as the low-pressure system may develop into a tropical cyclone over the weekend.

Key Questions and Answers

  • What weather systems are affecting Mexico this weekend? Various systems, including a low-pressure area with cyclone potential, cold front number 5, low-pressure channels in the center and east, and a monsoon trough in the Pacific South.
  • Where will the heaviest rainfall occur, and what are the potential hazards? Heaviest rainfall is expected in Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, Michoacán, Guerrero, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Potential hazards include river overflows, flooding, and landslides in low-lying areas.
  • How will temperatures be affected by these weather systems? The atmosphere will remain hot in the northwest, while central and northern mountainous areas may experience cooler temperatures overnight.