Introduction to the Situation
The Mexican National Water Commission (CONAGUA)’s meteorological service, known as the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), has issued a weather forecast predicting very strong rains in the Baja California Peninsula for Monday and Tuesday due to the cloud bands of Tormenta Tropical Mario.
Details on the Storm’s Current Status
As of 3:00 PM (local time) on September 15, the SMN reported that Tormenta Tropical Mario’s center was approximately 520 kilometers west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h, gusts up to 120 km/h, and was moving northwest at 20 km/h.
By Tuesday, the effects of Tormenta Tropical Mario are expected to gradually decrease as it weakens and moves away from national territory.
Regional Weather Forecast
In addition to Baja California Sur, other northern regions like Sonora, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, and Durango are also forecasted to experience rainfall in the afternoon on Monday due to the Mexican monsoon combined with atmospheric divergence.
The SMN further predicted thunderstorms and heavy to very heavy rainfall accompanied by electrical discharges across the southern, central, and northern parts of Mexico. This is attributed to a low-pressure system interacting with atmospheric instability, alongside the passage of Tropical Wave 32 over the south and central regions.
Another low-pressure system over northeastern Mexico, combined with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean, will cause showers and heavy rainfall in that region, according to CONAGUA.
Wind and Wave Conditions
CONAGUA detailed that along the western coast of Baja California Sur, winds ranging from 20 to 30 km/h with gusts up to 40 to 60 km/h and wave heights of 2 to 3 meters are expected.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: Who is issuing the weather forecast?
A: The Mexican National Water Commission’s meteorological service, known as the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). - Q: Where will the strongest rains occur?
A: In the Baja California Peninsula, particularly in the southern, central, and northern regions. - Q: What is causing the heavy rainfall?
A: The interaction of a low-pressure system with atmospheric instability, alongside Tropical Wave 32 and another low-pressure system bringing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean. - Q: What wind and wave conditions are expected along the western coast of Baja California Sur?
A: Winds ranging from 20 to 30 km/h with gusts up to 40 to 60 km/h and wave heights of 2 to 3 meters.
